Voters in Clacton on Sea will go to the polls on Thursday in a keenly-watched by-election.
The poll was triggered in July when Nigel Farage announced his resignation as member of Parliament for the Essex town.
In a speech that followed recent scrutiny over his financial support, the Reform UK leader said he would stand in the Clacton by-election in a bid to silence his critics and show he has a mandate with voters.
“I've decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment by election. It's a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment,” he said.
When is the Clacton by-election - and when will we know the result?
The Clacton by-election vote will be held on Thursday, August 13.
A record 34 candidates are running in the vote, including 20 independents and a number of joke contenders. However, Reform, the Social Democratic Party and Rejoin EU are the only established political parties to fight the election.
Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Restore Britain have all said they will not field candidates in the by-election. Green leader Zack Polanski said his party would not participate in a “circus”. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch accused Mr Farage of having a “hissy fit”. The lead opposing candidate to challenge Farage is the satirical Count Binface, a self-described “intergalactic space warrior” with a bin for a head.
Voting in the by-election takes place between 7am and 10pm. The result is expected in the early hours of Friday. It could be as early as 2pm, although the record number of candidates could complicate the counting and push an announcement back to around 5am-6am.
What are the key issues in the by-election?
Given that Farage is the only member of the big parties standing in the Clacton by-election, the vote will come down to whether or not voters believe in him rather than local issues.
In his resignation statement, Mr Farage made it clear that he views the forthcoming contest as being a “people versus the establishment” vote.
Having led the polls for over a year, the by-election will now provide a major test of both Reform UK’s momentum and Mr Farage’s leadership and popularity.
With that said, Count Binface has not held back on the number of pledges he is making. Some of the Count’s manifesto promises are directed specifically against Mr Farage, as he has said “MPs who resign mid-Parliament to be banned from the resulting by-election”.
What are the Clacton by-election odds?
In the 2024 general election, Mr Farage won comfortably, earning 21,225 for a 46.2% share of the vote.
He earned a majority of 8,405, with Giles Watkings of the Conservatives in second with 12,820 votes, and Labour’s Jovan Owusu-Nepaul in third with 7,448 votes.
Betting odds are strongly pointing to a win for Reform - but a shock win for Count Binface isn’t completely out of the question.
On Tuesday, August 11, Oddschecker was citing odds of between 1/50 and 1/250 on a Reform victory, with Binface priced between 11/1 and 48/1.
