Andy Burnham's timing, so perfect in the Makerfield by-election, has now deserted him as he opens the door to closer EU alignment at the worst possible moment, according to a new analysis.
The upcoming Budget could not have landed at a worse time. Labour wants its leader to tax more and spend more, but there is no money left. Chancellor John Healey has the fiscal headroom of a Friday night drunk down to his last two quid. Keir Starmer taxed and spent to excess, and Labour still heaved him out. Burnham can do neither.
Europe's Economic Crisis
Getting closer to the EU today is flirting with disaster, the piece argues. France is in a pre-revolutionary state, triggered by a lurch into bankruptcy. Public debt is heading towards 120% of GDP, higher than the UK's 95%. Its budget deficit is 5.4%, while the UK's is 4% and slowly coming down.
French pensions swallow an unaffordable 14% of GDP, compared to just 5% in the UK. Yet the French retire at 64, and there is a campaign to cut that back to 62. By contrast, the UK's retirement age is heading to 68, while Burnham is pushing to axe the state pension triple lock.
Germany and the Euro Under Strain
Germany is in trouble too. Since the pandemic, the UK economy has grown by 6.2%, while Germany's is up less than 2% as cheap Chinese imports drive its motor industry off the road. The euro has plunged to a 17-month low against the dollar.
While French cities burn and Marine Le Pen is named favourite to win next year's presidential elections, in Germany the far-right AfD is gaining ground by the day. The EU believes it is a superpower, but in practice it has been left behind by the world's only two real superpowers – China and the US – both making huge bounds in artificial intelligence while the EU tries to regulate it out of existence.
A Warning for Britain
Britain has huge problems of its own, but it is madness to imagine they can be solved by embracing this economic and political disaster zone. The British left continue to view Europe through a romantic haze of baguettes, cheap wine, sunshine and generous social benefits. The reality is rather more disturbing.
Europe is a timebomb, and the clock is ticking. The sensible thing is to stand well clear. What Burnham is doing is madness, and this could blow up in all our faces.
