Brexit is in danger as leaders across Europe sense panic within the British establishment over the crisis in living standards, with powerful figures in different political tribes wanting the UK back as a member state. French finance minister Roland Lescure's call for Britain to rejoin is the clearest sign yet that the EU believes Brexit could be reversed.
European ministers can see the lack of faith in Brexit among their Labour counterparts. They know there is potential for a Left-Liberal alliance after the next general election, and reversing Brexit is one of the few issues that would command support among Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, SNP and Plaid Cymru MPs.
Burnham signals rejoining EU
Prime Minister Andy Burnham will shortly set out options for Britain's future relationship with Europe, and he has already signalled that this will include rejoining the EU. The move would provoke fury in Brexiteer circles and anger voters in Leave-voting constituencies, many of whom are in the Red Wall.
There is a palpable sense of desperation as the economy refuses to prosper, debt interest payments climb, and millions of voters face the possibility of higher mortgage, food and energy costs. Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives and Nigel Farage's Reform UK have policy packages to revive the economy, but the cuts they are prepared to make are politically impossible for a Prime Minister who has pushed his party even further Left.
Mr Burnham cannot blame Britain's miserable growth on Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves – that would sound like an endorsement of the Tory attack line that Labour cannot be trusted with the economy – but he is happy to blame the UK's present woes on the vote to leave the EU a decade ago.
Shift in Brexit language
Gone is Starmerite talk of making Brexit “work”. Instead, the ground is being prepared for a radical shift in Britain's relationship with Brussels. This is despite him saying before he returned to Parliament that he would respect the “decision that was made with the referendum” and the commitment in the 2024 manifesto not to return to the “single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement”.
If Westminster's europhiles believe that rejoining is a true possibility they will fight to make this happen. Mr Burnham's conference speech showed he lacks a clear vision for immediate economic growth, right when the cost of living crisis is poised to return with a vengeance. If he and his team genuinely believe that Brexit has sabotaged the economy they will have every motivation to go back into the bloc.
Worst parliament for living standards
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation warns that “incomes after housing costs in 2029-30 are now expected to be between £440 and £770 a year lower than they were in 2024-25”. It says that “either scenario would represent the worst parliament for living standards since modern records began in 1961”.
The think tank does not hold back in describing the consequences for the nation: “A decade of no growth in living standards is a disaster. We would typically expect average incomes to have grown by £10,000 over the period.” This comes as the average interest rate on a new five-year fixed mortgage deal has reached 6% for the first time in three years.
Mr Burnham must know that his hopes of winning an election in 2029 will be sunk if this vision becomes a reality. Desperate times call for desperate measures – and this is what makes Rejoin a real possibility.
