New data released this afternoon by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows hospital admissions relating to Covid increased by almost 50% in a week, as the dominant XFG strain – dubbed 'American Covid' – continues to spread. The figures for the week to October 4 also show Covid-19 positivity increased to 9.1% compared with 7.9% in the previous week.
Hospitalisations and positivity rise
Hospitalisations increased to 2.04 per 100,000 compared with 1.75 per 100,000 in the previous week, while intensive care admissions rose slightly. Some parts of the country have seen much sharper increases, officials said. The strain has been known since last year but has now become dominant in several countries, with medical experts warning it has some unique symptoms.
Dr Alex Allen, Consultant Epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: "While COVID-19 activity has shown some recent increases, cases remain at low levels in the UK. It’s completely normal for viruses to change over time. The strains currently going around, including those known as XFG, are closely related to strains that have been with us for over a year, so this isn’t something new. We’re also not seeing any evidence that these are making people more ill or spreading faster than before, and this year’s autumn vaccine has been specifically designed to protect against them."
Flu levels higher than usual
Officials also said levels of flu and hospitalisation are already higher than for the last five years. Flu positivity increased to 6.5% compared with 5% in the previous week. UKHSA scientists said flu activity throughout September has been higher than in the same period during all past four winter seasons. While still at baseline (very low levels), flu trends have been rising since August, with possible signs the UK may see an early flu season.
A recent World Health Organization (WHO) technical report indicated that one of the flu A(H1N1) viruses recently seen at low levels in Europe, and recently in the UK, has 'drifted' compared to the virus component used in this year’s flu vaccine. Last year UKHSA said it also saw a 'drifted' A(H3N2) flu virus, but the vaccines still gave good protection.
Vaccine advice and symptoms
Dr Allen said the current vaccination was targeted against the 'American Covid' strain, which has been circulating for around 12 months but has seen a bigger rise in the last couple of months. Pharmacist Daniel Cheung, writing in NowPatient, said the key symptom of XFG – also known as Stratus – includes hoarseness and a scratchy or raspy voice, which he described as "a unique symptom distinguishing it from other Covid strains."
UKHSA added: "It is still too early in the season to say with any certainty whether this drifted A(H1N1) virus will circulate widely in the UK or how effective the vaccine will be against it. Flu is still at very low levels, but the subtyping data available so far this season shows there is an equal mix of subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) in England."
Modelling indicated that, in England last winter, the vaccination programme prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths. Dr Jamie LopezBernal, Consultant Epidemiologist, said: "Flu levels are increasing with the possibility of an early flu season so now is the time for those eligible to get vaccinated." Members of the public eligible for a free vaccine can check their eligibility and book an appointment through the NHS App, online, or by contacting their GP practice or a local pharmacy.
