The NHS has warned of 'ominous' signs as flu cases in the UK are higher than they have been for the last four years. At a press conference this afternoon (Thursday), officials said flu trends have been rising since August and there are possible signs that the UK may see an early flu season.
Prof Frankie Swords, National Medical Director at NHS England, told the press conference that flu was at the 'highest levels we've seen' by this date and said hospitals were already under pressure with high bed occupancy rates. She said beds had seen 90% occupancy in September and urged people to get their vaccinations.
Rising flu trends and early season warning
Flu positivity increased, with a positivity rate of 6.5% compared with 5% on the previous week. UKHSA scientists said flu activity throughout September has been higher than in the same period during all past four winter seasons. It is thought that the increases in flu are being driven by young adults, including those returning to university.
Prof Swords said levels were the 'highest we've seen' and added "there are ominous signs of increased pressure." One of the key flu strains has also changed a lot since the vaccine was created.
Drifted H1N1 strain and vaccine effectiveness
A recent World Health Organization (WHO) technical report indicated that one of the flu A(H1N1) viruses that has recently been seen at low levels in Europe, and recently in the UK, has 'drifted' compared to the virus component used in this year's flu vaccine. Last year UKHSA said it also saw a 'drifted' A(H3N2) flu virus, but the vaccines still gave good protection.
UKHSA added: "It is still too early in the season to say with any certainty whether this drifted A(H1N1) virus will circulate widely in the UK or how effective the vaccine will be against it. Flu is still at very low levels, but the subtyping data available so far this season shows there is an equal mix of subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) in England.
"Importantly, the flu vaccine contains components to help protect against all 3 types of flu viruses (Flu A subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 - and Flu B). Flu is unpredictable, some seasons one flu virus will dominate, and some seasons all 3 flu viruses could circulate at different times during winter. As we saw with last year's A(H3N2) virus, which dominated, flu vaccines typically remain effective at preventing severe flu, even when drifted strains are seen." Drift consists of small changes (or mutations) in the genes of influenza viruses.
Vaccination urged as hospitalisations rise
Modelling indicated that, in England last winter, the vaccination programme prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths. Dr Jamie LopezBernal, Consultant Epidemiologist, said: "Flu levels are increasing with the possibility of an early flu season so now is the time for those eligible to get vaccinated.
"The vaccine contains components to help protect against all three types of flu virus. We may see one flu virus dominating at different times during winter, or all three circulating at similar levels throughout. As we saw with last year's dominant virus, flu vaccines typically remain effective at preventing severe flu, even when drifted strains are seen."
Members of the public who are eligible for a free vaccine can check their eligibility and book an appointment through the NHS App, online, or by contacting their GP practice or a local pharmacy.
New data released this afternoon by the UK Health Security Agency showed hospitalisations have increased, as have positive tests. Officials also said that levels of flu and hospitalisation are already higher than for the last five years. The data for the week to October 4 showed Covid-19 positivity increased with a weekly positivity rate of 9.1% compared with 7.9% in the previous week. Hospitalisations increased to 2.04 per 100,000 compared with 1.75 per 100,000 in the previous week. Intensive care admissions rose slightly.
Dr Alex Allen, Consultant Epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: "While COVID-19 activity has shown some recent increases, cases remain at low levels in the UK.
"It's completely normal for viruses to change over time. The strains currently going around, including those known as XFG, are closely related to strains that have been with us for over a year, so this isn't something new. We're also not seeing any evidence that these are making people more ill or spreading faster than before, and this year's autumn vaccine has been specifically designed to protect against them.
"If you are eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine it is because you are at greater risk of severe illness and being hospitalised. Don't risk it, get the vaccine and give yourself the best protection."
The strains currently circulating, including those known as XFG, are closely related to strains seen here for over a year, UKHSA said. Dr Allen said the current vaccination was targeted against the 'American Covid' strain, and said it had been circulating for around 12 months - but had only seen a bigger rise in the last couple of months.
