Weather experts are urging governments across the world to “act now” as El Nino is set to intensify significantly before the end of the year. The current El Nino is likely to be the strongest in living memory, according to experts.
El Nino occurs every few years when temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. For the UK, it tends to lead to wetter and stormier conditions in the winter months, and extreme heat during the summer.
WMO calls for preparedness
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says “we still have time to act” and called on health authorities across the world to treat extreme heat “as the predictable public-health risk that it is”.
Much of the Southern Hemisphere will face its hottest months at the start of 2027, just as El Nino will be peaking. The WMO says “death and severe illness” are on the cards as the extreme conditions will exacerbate preexisting health conditions.
Beyond heat: rainfall and disease risks
But the heat isn’t the only risk. Armel Castellan, Extreme Heat Advisor from the WHO-WMO Climate and Health Joint Programme, says: “WMO’s seasonal climate outlook for September to November points to above-normal rainfall in some regions and drought risk in others. That puts water security, nutrition, and vector-borne disease on the table alongside temperature.
“The WMO seasonal outlooks buy us much needed lead time, and that lead time is what lets health authorities look ahead and prepare, rather than repair. If health practitioners can make informed decisions, this can make the difference between losing lives or saving them.”
Disease spread and food insecurity
Warmer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns also bring an increased risk of diseases carried by mosquitoes, the WMO says. Malaria, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika could all spread to regions where they are not usually seen.
The WMO identified malnutrition and cholera as among the “most serious concerns” in regions facing both drought and flooding. Moreover, the amount of people facing acute food insecurity is expected to rise - and it already stands at 150 million globally.
Teresa Zakaria, Unit Head for Risk Reduction, Humanitarian Operations and Climate Change at WHO, said: “El Nino is a significant public health threat, not just a climate phenomenon. It is a risk multiplier, and we expect to see health impacts across the world.
“However, the most severe impacts will be experienced where climate shocks intersect with weak health systems, limited access to health care, food insecurity, displacement and humanitarian crises.”
