NHS chiefs have issued an urgent warning as an unusually early flu season collides with a spike in “American Covid” cases, leaving hospitals struggling to cope. The alert comes during the single busiest summer in the history of UK emergency departments, with hospital bed occupancy averaging around 95% throughout September.
With winter pressures building earlier than expected, NHS England’s National Medical Director Professor Frankie Swords has issued a direct plea for eligible Brits to “act now” and get vaccinated. Flu is usually expected to peak later in December, but surveillance suggests influenza has been steadily climbing since mid-August.
Early flu surge and rising admissions
Admissions are now at their highest level for this point in the year since 2022, with infections being driven heavily by young adults aged 18 to 24. At the same time, Covid hospital admissions have risen sharply, with a large share of cases linked to the XFG variant, nicknamed “Stratus”, which was first detected in the United States.
Officials say it now accounts for more than half of all positive hospital tests across the country, though they stress there is currently no evidence it causes more severe illness than previous strains. Warnings are also growing about knock-on pressure across the system.
Pressure on emergency departments
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has said emergency department attendances for acute respiratory infections are already tracking above seasonally expected levels. Moreover, hospitals are becoming backed up and ambulances are frequently left waiting outside packed A&E departments.
In its latest surveillance update, UKHSA said: “Influenza activity increased and is circulating at baseline levels. Emergency department (ED) attendances for influenza-like-illness (ILI) increased and were above seasonally expected levels.”
On Covid, it added: “COVID-19 activity increased across some indicators and is circulating at low levels. ED attendances for COVID-19-like illness increased and were above seasonally expected levels.”
Vaccination uptake and data
The figures underline why health bosses are worried. By the end of week 40 of 2026 (week ending 4 October 2026), UKHSA said 10.2% of people aged 75 and over, and 4.1% of under-75s with a weakened immune system, had received an autumn 2026 dose since 1 October.
As of 4 October, there were 1,638 Covid cases identified in hospital settings in week 40, up from 1,328 the week before. Hospital PCR positivity also rose, with a rolling seven-day positivity rate of 9.1% up to Sunday 4 October 2026, compared with 7.9% the previous week, and rates were highest among the over-85s at 13.1%.
Flu positivity has also climbed, with a rolling seven-day positivity rate of 6.5% up to Sunday 4 October, compared with 5.0% the previous Sunday. Influenza A accounted for most of that, and positivity was especially high in 18 to 24-year-olds, hitting 28.1%.
Despite the rising numbers, officials insist there is no need for panic - but they are urging people not to delay their jabs. The NHS autumn vaccination programme has been tailored to protect against currently circulating strains, and more than 3.9 million people have already received their winter vaccines since the rollout expanded.
Eligible groups include over-65s, pregnant women and those in at-risk categories, who can book online or through the NHS App. Alex Allen, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: “While Covid-19 activity has shown some recent increases, cases remain at low levels in the UK.
“UKHSA is monitoring all the data relating to Covid-19 variants in the UK and abroad, and we continue to publish our findings in our regular surveillance reports.”
