Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are taking a firm stance against paid content creators who deny election results, requiring them to remove such posts or risk losing sponsorship, according to NPR.
Policy Updates
In a social media post, NPR technology reporter Bobby Allyn stated: "Kalshi now says it prohibits paid creators from calling into question the integrity or accuracy of an election, legal ruling or official determination in connection with an election." Allyn added that Polymarket now considers any affiliate post denying an election result a violation of its terms of service, which forbid creators from spreading false and misleading information. The company has reportedly asked two of its paid affiliates to remove sponsorship from such posts.
Recent Misinformation Incidents
Last week, Kalshi requested that influencers paid to promote the site take down posts spreading election misinformation. One such video featured commentator David Freeman, a Trump supporter, who said: "Let's talk about California for a second. You know they're cheating. I know they're cheating. You know they're cheating. We all know they're cheating."
Polymarket asked two creators to remove paid-partnership tags from posts, including one by conservative influencer Benny Johnson, who claimed that LA mayoral candidate Nithya Raman's odds improved on the site because "the public has so little faith in California's elections that they just assume Democrats are going to dramatically rig it." In another post labeled as a paid partnership with Polymarket, rightwing streamer Kangmin Lee said: "Notice how the mail-in ballots that come in last second always end up voting Democrat. Totally a coincidence, nothing to see here."
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to "trade" on the outcomes of events ranging from sports games to geopolitical conflicts to elections. While banned in some countries under gambling laws, these platforms operate widely across the US, including in states where gambling has long been prohibited. US politics have become a frequent target of bets on such markets.
Legal and Regulatory Scrutiny
Last week, federal authorities began investigating whether disgraced former Republican congressman George Santos engaged in insider trading by placing a Kalshi bid on his own attendance at the State of the Union address. In April, Kalshi disclosed it had reprimanded three political candidates who traded on their own electoral prospects. In March, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing the platform of unlawfully allowing election betting.
Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Meanwhile, the president's social media platform, Truth Social, is developing its own prediction market called Truth Predict.
Context on California Election
Since last week's primary election in California, Trump and other Republicans have spread unfounded claims of election fraud. California has historically taken a slow, careful approach to counting ballots, verifying votes and allowing voters to correct errors.
