A girl walks past an anti-Israeli mural on a street in Tehran, a city where advocates of all-out war between Iran and Israel remain a minority. The image captures the complex sentiment within Iran as the nation navigates a volatile regional conflict.
Iran's Military Shift Broadens Conflict
Iran's reversion to large-scale military exchanges with Israel has significantly broadened the conflict that began in February. This escalation not only made Israeli attacks on Hezbollah a direct casus belli for Iran for the first time but also drew the Houthis in Yemen back into the fray, with consequences that remain incalculable. Some factions in Tehran, buoyed by past military successes and emboldened by the chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, view this moment as a potential point of no return in the conflagration with Israel. A minority within Iran would welcome the abandonment of ceasefire talks with the United States, an outcome they have been advocating for weeks.
However, other voices in Tehran argue that Iran can exploit tensions between Israel and the US to accelerate a deal. US President Donald Trump, desperate to extricate himself from a war that has exposed American diplomatic and military impotence, may be amenable to negotiations. Trump's social media post urging Iran and Israel to stop firing at each other did not project an image of a man in control. Iran's decision to announce it was ending operations, provided there were no further Israeli attacks, suggests that advocates of all-out war are in the minority.
Internal Debates and Economic Pressures
Hesamodin Ashna, an adviser to former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, argued in a recent speech that social cohesion and trust inside Iran remain fragile. His camp asserts that the return of Iran's frozen assets and the gradual lifting of US sanctions are imperative to rescue the Iranian economy from near-collapse. They contend that the economic situation was the incubator for the protests in January.
Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, navigated a delicate balance at his weekly press conference in Tehran. He challenged the notion that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mounted attacks on Iran in defiance of Trump but suggested Israel might be trying to sabotage talks with the US, fearing the terms of a deal would weaken it. Baghaei insisted that dialogue with the US, conducted indirectly via Pakistan, was continuing and had not been suspended. He was adamant that the US was involved in the strikes, stating, 'No one in our region believes that an action by the Zionist regime would be taken without prior coordination and cooperation from the United States.'
Baghaei cautioned Iran's allied groups against premature disarmament, drawing a parallel with Jean de La Fontaine's fable 'The Lion in Love,' where a lion, blinded by love, agreed to clip its claws only to be mauled by enemies. Few doubt Iran's propensity to bare its claws, and now, as a matter of strategic doctrine, it tries always to respond by not just threatening but imposing escalation.
Hassan Ahmadian, a frequent commentator in Arab media, warned, 'The era of strategic patience has ended, and there is no turning back. Iran and its allies are determined to impose and solidify new rules of engagement against their adversary – and I do not see them backing down. For retreat in the face of those who practice genocide will only unleash annihilation across the length and breadth of the region. Resistance, on the other hand, is the only civilized response that holds any meaning against them.'
Strategic Threats and Negotiating Demands
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated it was prepared to target Gulf state energy installations. 'In the event of continued attacks toward energy infrastructure, all oil and gas facilities associated with Israel, the United States and their allies, including regional energy facilities, will be a target for the armed forces of Iran.'
Iran's negotiating demands have remained remarkably consistent: a ceasefire in Lebanon including the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the unfreezing of half of Iran's frozen assets (about $12 billion), a form of Iranian management over the Strait of Hormuz, and detailed discussions later about how Tehran assures the US it is not seeking a nuclear weapon, including the down-blending of its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Trump has been very close to agreeing to these terms but is trying to find ways to phrase them to make them more palatable to his domestic audience.
Blockade Dynamics Favor Iran
The battle of blockades in the Strait of Hormuz is trending in Iran's favor. World oil inventories are slowly running out, and crashing the global economy from Japan to Brazil seems more dangerous than Iran running out of cash and oil exports. The democratic West's capacity to absorb economic pain does not match that of the Iranian regime. The intervention by the Houthis tips the scale further in Iran's direction. The precise impact will depend on whether the Houthis decide to expand the announced blockade, currently confined to Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, into a broader blockade of hostile shipping.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, has acted as a crucial relief valve for oil exporters. Saudi Arabia's oil flows surged through its east-west pipeline after Hormuz closed, redirecting millions of barrels a day to the Red Sea. The Houthis have not said they would block this flow, but this could change. The Red Sea route is responsible for 15% of global naval shipping trade, and the Strait of Hormuz about 20%. The simultaneous full closure of both waterways would put huge pressure on the Cape of Good Hope route around South Africa.
The Houthis started blockading ships in the Red Sea heading for Israeli ports from November 2013, leading to the bankruptcy of the Israeli port of Eilat. The number of ships going through the Suez Canal more than halved in 2024, causing a massive decline in revenues for the canal and Egypt. The Houthis, involved in behind-the-scenes peace talks with Saudi Arabia about ending the Yemen civil war, have not relished rejoining the conflict, partly because they suffered serious blows to their command structure last year. The movement now faces a choice of mounting the blockade or waiting for a lead from Iran.
