Airline industry leaders have conceded that the aviation sector's landmark pledge to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will likely not be met. The collective goal was announced by global airlines in 2021, following similar commitments from national aviation bodies and governments, including the UK, in 2020.
Willie Walsh's stark warning
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (Iata), stated that "hope was fading fast" and called for the establishment of a new "realistic timeline." Walsh, who served as CEO of British Airways owner IAG until September 2020, attributed the likely failure to fuel suppliers, governments, and aircraft manufacturers.
Dependence on sustainable aviation fuel
More than half of the planned decarbonisation for aviation relied on the development of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), with much of the remainder dependent on the Corsia global emissions trading programme under the UN and its aviation body ICAO. In a speech at the Iata summit in Rio de Janeiro, Walsh noted that Corsia was being "undermined" by government inaction, while annual SAF production would only reach 2.4 million tonnes this year—just 0.8% of airline fuel needs. "The goal is 65% or 500 million tonnes by 2050. The gap is wide and not closing fast enough," he said.
Walsh highlighted that governments, through ICAO, aimed for a 5% emissions reduction by 2030 using SAF. However, he cautioned: "To be blunt, there is no path to meet that outcome." He added: "There is still hope for 2050 – but that's fading fast … We need an urgent dialogue to determine a realistic timeline given the current state of affairs."
Call for a new timeline
While Walsh did not rule out the 2050 target entirely, he suggested that "the more likely outcome, however, is a new timeline that hits a sweet spot – realistic within the broader context of the global energy transition and sufficiently near-term to meet the urgencies of climate change and energy security."
Speaking to the Guardian later, Walsh emphasised that airlines were "continuing to do everything we said we would do, but we can't achieve net zero in 2050 on our own." He expressed disappointment with manufacturers delaying delivery of new efficient aircraft, the lack of reform in air traffic management systems worldwide, and fuel companies failing to deliver on promises to make SAF available.
Environmental campaigners' perspective
The admission is unlikely to surprise environmental campaigners, who have long viewed the pledges and pathways to sustainable aviation as greenwashing and a cover for continued expansion of flying. However, it may give further food for thought to the UK government, which in theory will only support further expansion of Heathrow Airport if climate tests are met.
Government mandates and e-SAF challenges
Governments have tried to push SAF by imposing mandates. Although the UK just met the 2% minimum of SAF in overall jet fuel used in 2025—largely from recycled cooking oil imported from Asia—future targets require next-generation fuels such as e-SAF, derived from renewable energy. While the carbon reduction credentials appear clearer, these fuels do not exist in significant quantities.
Iata's sustainability vice-president and chief economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, said the UK and EU e-SAF targets for 2030 were "beyond unrealistic – they are utterly detached from reality. It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled. Such a strategy will only drive up the price."
