A new report from the United Nations weather agency warns that the next five years will overwhelmingly likely surpass the international climate threshold set as safe, repeatedly breaking records for the hottest year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projects a 75% chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
Key Findings
The WMO, in collaboration with the UK Met Office, forecasts that each year from now until 2030 will be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C warmer than the late 1800s. There is a 91% probability that at least one of the next five years will surpass the 1.5°C threshold, and an 86% chance that a new record for the hottest year will be set, eclipsing 2024.
“It’s important to note that 1.5°C is not a cliff edge we fall off,” said Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office and co-author of the report. “Every 0.1 degree has more severe impacts.” She pointed to the unprecedented May heatwave in Europe as an example.
Extreme Weather Consequences
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, warned that exceeding 1.5°C for a full year would trigger extreme weather events beyond current planning. “This will mean many people lose their lives, food price shocks, and more intense wildfires,” she said.
The report also highlights an overheating Arctic, which is warming nearly 3°F (1.66°C) between now and 2030, three times faster than the global average due to melting ice and snow reducing solar reflection. This creates a vicious cycle of further warming.
Amazon and Sahel Impacts
The Amazon basin is expected to experience warmer and drier conditions, increasing wildfire risk and potentially turning the region from a carbon sink into a carbon source. Conversely, Africa’s Sahel region may see above-normal rainfall, leading to flooding.
United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell emphasized that global heating is outpacing efforts to contain it. “Every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis,” he said, citing extreme heat, mega-storms, floods, wildfires, and droughts affecting food supply and prices.
