In the final days before the Academy Awards, several key races are tightening. Early frontrunners Hamnet and One Battle After Another – winners of the Golden Globes for best drama and best musical or comedy, respectively – have seen their fortunes diverge. Hamnet has dropped back, while Ryan Coogler's vampire chiller Sinners has surged after taking major prizes at the Baftas and the Actor Awards.
One Battle After Another remains the slight favourite for best picture, but it has faced controversy over its sexualised depiction of black women. The BBC's film critic predicts that Sinners will overtake it, buoyed by growing goodwill. In the best director category, Paul Thomas Anderson is considered a near-certain winner for One Battle After Another, having claimed the Bafta and Directors Guild Award despite never winning an Oscar from 14 previous nominations.
The best actress race is all but decided: Jessie Buckley is expected to win for her fierce portrayal of Shakespeare's wife in Hamnet, having been the frontrunner since the film's Telluride premiere. No serious challengers have emerged, though some critics preferred performances by Rose Byrne, Renate Reinsve and Emma Stone.
Best actor, once seen as Timothée Chalamet's to lose for Marty Supreme, now appears to be Michael B Jordan's after he won the Actor Award for his dynamic dual role in Sinners. Chalamet lost the Bafta to Robert Aramayo and has seen his film's awards momentum fade while Sinners continues to gain ground.
