Voters go to the polls in the Makerfield by-election on Thursday, with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham favourite to beat Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in what is widely seen as a two-horse race. The former Cabinet minister has made clear that if he returns to Parliament he will challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership and to be Prime Minister.
If Burnham does gain the keys to No10, he may inherit a better economic legacy than was handed to Sir Keir by Rishi Sunak's outgoing Conservative administration. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's spring Budget lopped 2p off National Insurance, which Labour MPs accused of being an unfunded tax cut, but the Conservatives argued it could be funded by welfare cuts.
Rachel Reeves, the first woman Chancellor, clobbered businesses with a £25 billion rise in employers' National Insurance contributions in her first Budget to fund better public services including the NHS, but which was widely blamed for damaging many firms. She also had to find money for pay settlements for public sector workers, and hit Britain with a second £26 billion tax blow in her second Budget, axing the two-child benefit cap and building a larger fiscal headroom of nearly £22 billion.
The economy appeared to be picking up at the start of the year but was then rocked by Donald Trump's Iran war, which sent the cost of oil and borrowing spiralling. However, with signs that America and Tehran may be close to a peace deal, hopes are rising that the economy could gain momentum, possibly as Burnham gets his feet under the desk in No10.
The greatest criticism among Labour's ranks of the current Prime Minister is not so much that the party has not delivered reforms but Sir Keir's inability to communicate achievements to the nation. Meanwhile, measures started by Sunak's Government and ramped up by Labour, such as restrictions on foreign nationals being recruited from overseas to work in care homes, may partially defuse immigration as a political issue, though the 'small boats' Channel crisis continues.
