Oscars 2024: Horror Film Sinners Challenges Tradition in Tightest Race in Years
The Academy Awards are just days away, and this year's ceremony is shaping up to be the most unconventional and unpredictable in recent memory. For the first time in decades, a horror film is on track to dominate the Oscars, challenging long-standing industry norms and setting the stage for a historic night.
Best Picture: A Battle Between Horror and Tradition
With an impressive 16 nominations, the bloody vampire musical Sinners has become the most nominated horror film in Academy history, surpassing classics like The Exorcist, Silence of the Lambs, and The Sixth Sense. Its primary competition is the star-studded One Battle After Another, featuring Hollywood heavyweights like Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn. Traditionally, a film with a progressive, politically-charged message like One Battle After Another would be expected to sweep the Oscars, but Sinners has gained significant momentum, making the Best Picture category the most tightly contested this year.
Originally, One Battle After Another was predicted to win Best Picture, but Sinners has emerged as a major challenger in recent weeks. Its victory at the Actor Awards for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture has significantly boosted its odds. Publications such as USA Today, Esquire, Variety, and Awards Daily have all picked Sinners to take the top honor. However, awards tracker Gold Derby and prediction market site Kalshi still have One Battle After Another as the clear favorite as of Friday the 13th, with The Hollywood Reporter, The New Yorker, and Associated Press also backing the thriller.
Usually, the screenplay categories serve as a good indicator for Best Picture, but this year both films are set to win: One Battle After Another is tipped for Best Adapted Screenplay, while Sinners should win Best Original Screenplay. The nominees for Best Picture include Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams, with the favorite being a tie between Sinners and One Battle After Another.
Best Director: Anderson vs. Coogler
Much like Best Picture, the Best Director category is essentially a showdown between Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler for Sinners. No major publication or betting market like Kalshi has Coogler as the winner, making Anderson the clear favorite. However, if Coogler were to win, he would become the first Black director to win since the Oscars began almost a century ago, leading some in the film community to speculate that the Academy might award him to make a statement. Josh Safdie, director of Marty Supreme, currently has the worst odds among the nominees.
Best Actor: Jordan Overtakes Chalamet
Timothée Chalamet was initially considered a virtual lock for Best Actor for his role in Marty Supreme, but he has now been surpassed by Sinners star Michael B. Jordan. Jordan is favored to win by USA Today, The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Gold Derby, Awards Daily, and Kalshi. Despite Chalamet's tireless promotional campaign after two prior nominations, his odds have worsened, particularly after Marty Supreme lost all 11 categories at the BAFTAs and all three nominations at the Actor Awards, where Chalamet lost Best Actor to Jordan. Chalamet has also faced criticism for controversial comments on the press tour, such as stating that 'no one cares' about ballet and opera anymore.
Best Actress: Buckley's Dominance with a Caveat
One of the few categories not dominated by Sinners or One Battle After Another is Best Actress, where Jessie Buckley for Hamnet is overwhelmingly predicted to win. Every outlet and market has her as the favorite by a wide margin, with Rose Byrne a distant second for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. The only potential obstacle for Buckley is the negative press surrounding her performance in The Bride, a film that has failed to impress critics and bombed at the box office. There is speculation that, similar to Eddie Murphy's loss after Norbit, Buckley could suffer an upset, but this remains unlikely.
Best Supporting Actor and Actress: Penn and Madigan Lead
In the Best Supporting Actor category, Sean Penn for One Battle After Another is widely tipped to win, which would mark his third Academy Award after wins for Mystic River and Milk. Kalshi, USA Today, The Hollywood Reporter, and Gold Derby all predict a Penn victory, though Variety has broken from consensus by favoring Sinners star Delroy Lindo.
The Best Supporting Actress category offers a surprise, with Amy Madigan favored to win for her role in the horror film Weapons. Madigan, who hasn't garnered awards buzz since the 1980s, faces competition from One Battle After Another's Teyana Taylor, but early wins at the Actor Awards, Critic's Choice Awards, AACTA, and ASTRAs give her the edge. This category highlights a potential shift in the Academy's treatment of horror films, especially with Sinners's dominance this season.
Overall, the 2024 Oscars promise to be a landmark event, with Sinners challenging traditional Oscar fare and potentially reshaping the future of horror in awards season. The tight races across key categories underscore the unpredictable nature of this year's ceremony, making it one to watch closely.
