The government has announced it will take over full responsibility for special educational needs (Send) spending from local councils in England from April 2028. The move, revealed at the Budget, has prompted warnings of a £20bn fiscal timebomb for the Department for Education within two years.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said annual Send costs in England could reach £6bn by 2028. Combined with historical council deficits projected at £14bn, total Send-related spending may hit £20bn. The OBR described this as a significant fiscal risk, noting the government has not set out how it will address the accumulated deficits or ongoing extra costs.
If the additional £6bn annual spending were fully funded through the core schools budget, it would imply a 4.9% real-terms fall in mainstream schools spending per pupil from 2028-29, instead of the planned 0.5% increase. A Department for Education spokesperson said the OBR forecasts did not account for future policy changes, adding that any deficit would be absorbed within the overall government budget.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated the imminent reforms were "not about money" but about creating a system that works for children, parents, and schools. She expressed a preference for integrating children into mainstream schools where possible. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson is expected to set out the reforms in a schools white paper early next year.
Local government leaders welcomed the removal of the Send spending burden from councils but expressed uncertainty over how the £14bn deficit would be cleared. The deficit is currently held off council balance sheets using an accounting override, due to be lifted in 2028. Councils warn that without a solution, nine out of ten upper-tier authorities could effectively declare bankruptcy.
Send spending has surged due to a rise in Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs), which have more than doubled to 639,000 in a decade. This has forced councils to rely on expensive private special schools. Matthew Hicks of the County Councils Network urged the government to move beyond promises and provide a concrete solution to prevent council bankruptcies.
