Ukraine's campaign of long-range strikes against Russian oil facilities has knocked out just over half of Russia's total oil refining capacity, according to the Kyiv government, heaping pressure on the Kremlin and its war chest. The strikes are part of a pattern of growing Kremlin brazenness and desperation, not just in Ukraine but elsewhere in Europe, an opinion piece by James Knuckey argues.
Air raid alerts in Kyiv reach record levels
Piercing air raid sirens have become an almost constant soundtrack to life in Kyiv as Vladimir Putin attempts to turn the screw. For much of this bitter war, Russian attacks on the Ukrainian capital have come under the cover of darkness. But now Russia is increasingly striking the city during the daytime too — and at an alarming rate.
Russia has been ramping up missile and jet-powered drone strikes on Kyiv for some weeks now. On Wednesday, an air raid alert was in place for 20 hours and 44 minutes, which is believed to be a record. Major bridges in Kyiv have been targeted by Russia for several days in a row.
The city spent a whopping third of last month under air raid alerts amid Russian bombardments, according to analysis by the Kyiv Independent. The assaults are having a significant impact on everyday life, from schools to businesses and more.
Ukraine's oil strikes pressure the Kremlin
Ukraine's Patriot interceptor shortage — which has proved something of an Achilles' heel — has encouraged Moscow, which has vowed to intensify the strikes. However, it also speaks to a pattern of growing Kremlin brazenness and desperation — not just in Ukraine, but elsewhere in Europe.
Famously, Mr Putin thought Kyiv would fall in just three days when he launched his 'Special Military Operation' more than four-and-a-half years ago. To put it simply, the conflict has been a disaster. British military intelligence last month said half a million Russian soldiers have been killed since 2022. While Russia's wailing economy is also struggling more and more.
Ukraine's campaign against targets deep inside Russia has heaped pressure on the Kremlin and its war chest. The Kyiv government has now claimed long-range strikes against oil facilities — from Moscow to Siberia — have knocked out just over half of Russia's total oil refining capacity.
Putin backs himself into a corner
Ukrainian defence minister Yevhenii Khmara hailed this as a "significant blow to the enemy's economy, its ability to wage aggression and supply its troop deployments". In a rare admission last week, Mr Putin said the strikes had caused Russia to lose around 1% of its GDP.
The reality, based on the Kremlin's usual smoke-and-mirrors spin and rhetoric, is probably much worse. And perhaps this explains why the Russian bear is increasingly showing its teeth to Europe. An explosion of Kremlin threats reached a crescendo last week, warning NATO it is ready to use its "entire arsenal" — including nuclear weapons — if the alliance threatens Kaliningrad.
These are almost certainly aimed at undermining and weakening European support for Ukraine. Little by little, Mr Putin appears to have backed himself into a corner over this war in which the frontline has largely ground to a halt at a devastating cost to human life and Moscow's economy. And perhaps that makes him more dangerous than ever.
