Andy Burnham's sudden demand for the deportation of Shabir Ahmed, the Rochdale rape gang ringleader released after 14 years, has raised expectations that are almost certain to be dashed, according to a new analysis. The Greater Manchester Mayor, who had avoided mentioning immigration in a major speech on Monday, performed a sharp U-turn on Wednesday, calling for Ahmed's removal. However, legal and diplomatic obstacles make deportation highly unlikely, potentially handing a gift to Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
Burnham's Contradictory Stance
On Monday, Burnham outlined his plans for power in Manchester, focusing on devolution, council houses, and 'Manchesterism' without a single mention of immigration. By Wednesday, he was angrily demanding the deportation of Ahmed, who has joint UK-Pakistani citizenship. 'Like everyone, I want this vile criminal out of the country,' Burnham declared. Critics argue he is trying to appeal to both Labour activists and the wider public, but cannot have it both ways.
Burnham added: 'Victims must come first,' and pledged to ask the home and foreign secretaries to review all possible options, insisting 'nothing is off the table.' However, according to legal experts, the odds of deportation are vanishingly small.
Legal and Diplomatic Hurdles
Ahmed arrived in Britain before 1973, giving him additional protections under the 1971 Immigration Act. While Parliament could change the law, it would require overcoming opposition from left-wing MPs and activists who view such moves as racist. Even if the law were amended, Pakistan would need to agree to take Ahmed back. Islamabad is reluctant to set a precedent that could force it to accept other offenders who have lived in the UK for decades and may have renounced Pakistani nationality.
Burnham could threaten Pakistan with visa restrictions, as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has done with Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar, and Sudan. However, the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) poses another barrier. Withdrawing from the ECHR would provoke a revolt among Labour activists, who would compare Burnham to Adolf Hitler or Nigel Farage.
Political Fallout and Farage's Advantage
If Ahmed remains in the UK, voters will conclude nothing has changed, damaging Burnham's credibility. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has made ECHR withdrawal a key policy, while Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives also want out. Burnham's inability to deliver deportation could drive voters to Reform UK. 'Either way, Burnham is going to lose an awful lot of votes,' the analysis notes.
Burnham's predicament highlights the broader challenge for Labour on immigration and crime. As one commentator put it: 'He hates talking about immigration. If he's not careful, we'll soon all be talking about nothing else.'
