The UK is on high alert as Vladimir Putin issues threats to the UK amid fears the Russian president could order a strike on a critical sector. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has been warned the UK could be facing an "inevitable" attack on its defence and security from Russia. There are concerns Putin could order a strike on a critical sector in the UK after fresh threats were made against the UK.
Security Chiefs on High Alert
A potential strike has put security chiefs on high alert. There are fears a strike could target the PM, Andy Burnham, himself. Key military sites could also be at risk as part of a revenge plot because of the UK's continued support for Ukraine amid the brutal Russian invasion.
The Prime Minister travelled to the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, in a high profile visit following his decision to further strengthen military co-operation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Conscription and Rationing Fears
For the UK, war could take many forms, including soaring prices, conscription, rationing and an unprecedented cost of living crisis. Former MP and ex-British Army officer Dr Mike Martin has warned conscription could well become a necessity.
"Obviously if we got into a big war, we'd have conscription straight away," Dr Martin told the Big Issue. "Would we need to conscript? Yeah, we would. Because ultimately, we're not at a stage yet where you can replace people with drones. We're a long way off from that. Drones are fine, as far as they go, but you still need people to occupy villages, hold ground, and all the rest of it. And that's not going to change for quite some time."
Despite former Prime Minister Keir Starmer stating last year that "nobody is talking about conscription", he has yet to update his position in light of the mounting violence across the Middle East. General Sir Patrick Sanders also cautioned the Government last year that they ought to be readying Britons for conscription "within six years" should Vladimir Putin continue to pose a military threat.
Historical Precedents and Gas Prices
Conscription would initially target young men for the draft. In 1939 men aged between 21 and 22 were first conscripted before the pool expanded to include men aged between 18 and 41. Ex-soldiers and reservists possess military training already, making them a priority amongst those who would be summoned.
We need not look back far to witness contemporary instances of rationing. Just five years ago, throughout the pandemic, supermarkets were forced to impose per-customer restrictions on essentials such as toilet roll, eggs and bread. It may seem implausible in today's era of worldwide transport networks, but food supplies could easily be affected should war erupt - not simply regarding availability through shipping, but owing to stockpiling and panic purchasing as well.
Only a few years afterwards, when Russia invaded Ukraine, food costs skyrocketed, causing the price of numerous staple foods to surge, while inflation reached 11% in the UK as a consequence of rising food and energy bills. History and Policy.org stated: "The product restrictions and special opening hours that major food suppliers and retailers imposed on their customers in March 2020 are a historically novel form of rationing in which the state delegates responsibility for food rationing to private business."
In 2020 the restrictions were introduced by retailers themselves, rather than by government. Yet in the event of conflict, the Government could assume this responsibility to avert panic purchasing and guarantee everyone has sufficient essentials. During WW2, food was categorised into three groups. The first comprised guaranteed rationed items such as sugar. The second group encompassed milk, eggs, fish, fruits and vegetables, whose availability was not always assured. The third consisted of staple foods like bread and potatoes, which remained uncontrolled so people could freely consume these basics to ward off hunger.
Natural gas futures prices have soared following the war between the US, Israel and Iran. Data from Trading Economics reveals UK future prices for the fossil fuel surging over 40% to £1.15 per therm on Monday (March 2). This represents the highest level since February last year. The spike followed Qatar's state-backed energy company QatarEnergy announcing it "ceased production" due to attacks on its facilities. Gas prices in the UK are a principal driver for household energy bills, suggesting a prolonged spike could impact households in the months ahead.
