The seizure of five men allegedly about to attack RAF Fairford was very likely intelligence-led, according to analysis by the Mirror's Defence and Security Editor.
The rapid arrival of numerous armed police within minutes suggests a surveillance operation was already in progress. It is possible the farmer did stumble upon the suspects in the early hours, but an intense counter-terrorism mission was already taking place.
Police and MI5 were likely already watching
Police and the Security Service being already aware, and the farmer discovering the group near RAF Fairford, can both be true at the same time. However, the discovery may have added complications to the investigation, inadvertently stopping the plot from playing out sooner than authorities would have liked.
MI5 officers and counter-terror police work together on such operations, but they would have wanted to let it play out as long as possible to gather recorded evidence about the planning and near-execution of the alleged attack, cutting it off and making arrests at the very last moment.
Last-moment arrests highlight intent for courts
Leaving it to the last moment also highlighted the intent of the plan for the courts, such as proof of intent that the suspects entered the actual site with whatever devices they had in their vans.
The farmer said: "Within 10 minutes the village was full of armed police. I think it was pure luck that I arrived in the village at a similar time to the vans." However, it may have been exactly the opposite, with watching authorities nearby and cursing that she had stumbled upon the gang.
Defence Secretary hints at ongoing operation
The farmer said the authorities "dropped the ball", but Defence Secretary Wes Streeting gave a hint that the men were indeed being watched by saying she only has a "partial picture". Those two words are a heavy hint that a counter-terror operation was already underway.
There is a fine and high-risk balance between letting the operation play out for as long as possible and putting lives and property at risk. The likely target, according to sources, was hundreds of millions of pounds worth of US planes within RAF Fairford, which is by most measures a US air base.
Trackers and remote kill-switches likely in use
If these vehicles were being followed, they may well have had tracker devices on them that are impossible to find. In real-time they were likely being watched, and emergency services were all on standby to intervene, also able to disable the vehicles with remote kill-switches.
Security and surveillance on US-UK bases in Britain has been hugely stepped up, as has intelligence-gathering on Iran's attempts to attack military sites. The Security Service and MI6 have long suspected Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives of planning something like this since the UK became involved in defending against the risk of attacks from Iran following the US-led war on Iran.
British warplanes have been helping to defend against attacks from Iran. Recently the UK government also agreed to supply a Voyager refuelling plane to Saudi Arabia to help its Typhoon fast jets defend against attacks from the Houthis, who are fast-emerging as a powerful force in this conflict, involved in backing Iran's aggression and now trying to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The Houthis have become the most active member of the Iranian axis, currently embroiled in a war against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the internationally-recognised government of Yemen, which is exiled in Yemen.
Both MI5 and Counter Terror Police will be keen to keep quiet about how much they knew about the alleged plans of this group whilst other operations behind-the-scenes are underway. The Iranian IRGC will be the main suspects behind this, and if this alleged attempt to attack Fairford was state-sponsored it could lead to the UK having to give consequences to Tehran. It will further embroil the UK in the ongoing and unresolved conflict between the US and Iran and further put the UK at risk of attacks.
