Intelligence analyst Ryan McBeth has warned that Vladimir Putin could attempt to force NATO into a difficult choice by unleashing a "mass casualty event" on European holiday hotspots. The Russian President could target civilians in popular destinations in an attempt to pressure NATO countries into choosing between continuing their support for Ukraine or risking being drawn into a wider war.
Warning over suspected Russian drone plan
The warning comes amid reports that US intelligence has alerted European countries to a suspected Russian plan to launch drones from commercial vessels in the Mediterranean, potentially targeting Spain, France or Italy. Speaking to The Sun, Mr McBeth said: "Putin would want to attack these holiday hotspots because you could consider it a soft target. If you try to attack military installations, there might be some drone defence but by attacking these holiday hotspots, you’re going to create a mass casualty event."
He added: "Something like that could let countries in NATO know that Putin is serious. Putin will understand that most NATO countries would walk away from funding Ukraine rather than get their populations involved in a war."
Ultimatum and risks for Putin
Mr McBeth described the potential move as an ultimatum, saying: "It’s almost like him saying ‘I just killed 20 of your citizens. Now you have a choice’." He elaborated: "The ultimatum could be Putin saying ‘either a hundred, two hundred thousand of your civilians are killed in a war against me, or you can just walk away from Ukraine’."
However, he stressed the risks for Putin, noting: "But he has to make sure, absolutely sure, that he’s right about this. One thing Putin does not want is for NATO to enter this war. If NATO enters this war, that is how Putin ends up dead." He added: "This is something that could actually pull NATO apart rather than bring it together but if he is wrong, he won’t live to see the outcome."
Reports of Mediterranean drone operation
The warning follows a report from Spanish newspaper El Mundo that US intelligence had allegedly alerted European governments to a suspected Russian drone operation in the Mediterranean. Citing a source linked to Lithuania's defence establishment, the report suggested Gerbera drones could be hidden inside cargo containers aboard vessels before being launched from international waters. The source claimed: "Russia will use drones launched from the sea and hidden in cargo containers."
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned: "These coming weeks and months will be a time of very intensified actions on the Russian side. Unfortunately we cannot rule out that this escalation will also affect our territory." However, Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said the alleged warning about possible attacks on Italy, Spain and France was not confirmed, urging against adding "fuel to the fire".
