Prime Minister Andy Burnham has confirmed what many believed was likely from the start of the RAF Fairford mystery: that the Government believed Iran "played a part in what happened over the weekend at RAF Fairford", which prompted the arrest and then bailing of five men seized close to the mainly US airbase on Sunday.
Confusion and Hysteria
It has promoted a further storm of confusion and hysteria cast by right-wing commentators, furious that the five suspects arrested have been released under conditions. But there are two likelihoods: that whoever is really behind this mystery is a serious entity like Iranian intelligence, and whoever was seized on the ground may be far less seriously involved in an international plot. Or so they may have thought.
It is possible that intelligence agencies have been probing an Iranian attempt to do something against the Gloucestershire air base, housing US bombers. These are warplanes that have been repeatedly involved in operations against Iran.
Possible Iranian Probing
Interestingly, PM Burnham has paid tribute to counter-terror police and anyone involved in the investigation, which will include our own intelligence agencies. And it is also possible Iran, if it is involved in this, was probing security arrangements at RAF Fairford with a view to launching a future mission against the complex or another one elsewhere in the UK.
Tehran's intelligence agencies are known to have hired at arms length groups for money to carry out activities against the UK in the past. It is possible to do this via social media or gaming apps in such a way that whoever has been contacted will never know who they are really being employed by and why. We do not know what these men thought they were doing, but it is also possible they were duped into approaching the base, whilst Iran watched, able to take notes on the reaction.
Intelligence Operation Underway
An Iranian intelligence agency will have gleaned information on armed police response times, vulnerabilities in the security system and the reaction of the British authorities. US President Donald Trump stated as a fact that "we" have been watching them, immediately giving away the possibility that there was an intelligence operation underway. This does not mean the men are guilty of anything, just that he believes there was a surveillance operation already underway relating to RAF Fairford.
There is an outside chance the FBI or CIA has tipped off UK officials within MI5 that a suspected plot against Fairford was underway. This may have been picked up in intercepted conversations by the National Security Agency, the US version of our GCHQ. Or it could be that this was a British-led operation which the US authorities had been made aware of and which Trump has exposed. But we do not know if an intelligence operation was underway, how long it had been running for and how serious it was.
Impact and Fallout
It has also been suggested one of the men made a '999 call' to police an hour before the farmer who reported their behaviour to police. This would fit with the idea that the group was acting on someone else's behalf but he had rumbled that the real reason they were there was more suspicious than he thought. This may well have been a test, one that if bungled still had a positive effect for Iran, embarrassing the authorities, all the way up to the US President.
Even if it was a test that has been bungled by the 999 call and the farmer's tip-off, it may not matter to Iran, if it is indeed behind the alleged plot. This very bungle has caused more confusion and insecurity for ordinary British citizens, embarrassed the authorities and unfairly made the UK look weak.
It has also sparked fury amongst the increasingly suggestible and gullible far-right groups who appear to be doing the work for Iran and other enemies of the UK such as Russia. Division, confusion, aggression and degrading respect for the police and other authorities is exactly what Britain's enemies want. And every time something like this involving a counter-terror probe and the suggestion a foreign group is involved happens, the far-right falls for it.
Instead of directing their ire at the state or group doing it, they target the very UK authorities who are trying to keep them safe and have to obey legal parameters, screaming about incompetence and two-tier policing. This is a pretty good result for Iran and its anti-UK allies, assisted as is often the case, by right-wing critics of the government and police.
