Hundreds of inmates are set to be freed from prison on Thursday in the first phase of Andy Burnham's contentious expanded early release programme. Around 5,000 prisoners are slated to be discharged in stages over the coming year, reduced from 6,000, after ministers stepped in to exclude rapists and the most severe child sex offenders.
Prison population rises
The strategy to create space in the overcrowded male prison system arrives as statistics reveal the number of people incarcerated has soared by more than 1,700 in the past three months. The prison population of England and Wales reached 87,499 on Monday, according to weekly figures released by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ).
This represents an increase from 85,761 on June 29 – a jump of 1,738, or 2%. Ministers claim the expanded early release programme is essential to prevent the justice system from collapsing, following a summer when the matter dominated newspaper headlines.
Exclusions and criticism
Offenders will be barred from the scheme if they have been imprisoned for a series of crimes, including members of child grooming gangs convicted of indecent assault. Prisoners guilty of manslaughter will also be excluded, meaning the killers of Pc Andrew Harper, who died in the line of duty in 2019, will not be eligible.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham encountered substantial criticism for his original plans to reform the scheme, which would have seen Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole, who were convicted of Pc Harper's manslaughter in 2020, eligible for early release from next year. Justice Secretary Alex Norris has issued an apology to victims who endured a summer of uncertainty as the Government implemented several changes to the plans, reports Devon Live.
Scheme details and context
The scheme's expansion is due to the 2026 Sentencing Act, which permits ministers to lower the point at which certain prisoners can be released from 40% of a fixed-term sentence to a third.
Several hundred individuals are expected to be released on 1 October as part of the first phase of the expanded scheme, with more releases anticipated in the following months. The total prison population of England and Wales is currently 1,022 below the record high of 88,521, which was reached on 6 September 2024 following the public disorder that ensued after the Southport killings earlier that year.
The Government initiated the early release scheme just four days later, on 10 September 2024. Images of prisoners celebrating their early release sparked public outrage in the weeks that followed.
Inmate Daniel Dowling-Brooks exclaimed "big up Keir Starmer" as he was collected in a convoy of a white Bentley and black Mercedes G-Wagon outside HMP Swaleside in Kent in October 2024. Another prisoner at the same jail was greeted with a hug as he was picked up in a black Rolls-Royce by a group of men wearing matching hoodies.
According to the most recent MoJ data, a total of 70,066 prisoners had been released under the scheme up to the end of March 2026. Prison numbers saw a sharp decline in the weeks following the launch of the scheme, but began to rise again in early 2025 and have since mostly fluctuated between 86,000 and 88,000.
This is not the first scheme of its kind. Under a separate process introduced by the previous Conservative government, 13,325 prisoners in England and Wales were granted early release between October 17 2023 and September 9 2024.
