Hundreds of prisoners are set to walk free as the expanded early release scheme begins tomorrow (Thursday, October 1). The first wave of the Government’s controversial expanded early release scheme will see around 5,000 prisoners released in stages over the next year. It was initially set to be 6,000 before ministers intervened to exempt rapists and the most serious child sex offenders.
With the number of people behind bars jumping by more than 1,700 in the past three months, the release scheme is designed to free up capacity in the overcrowded male prison estate. According to weekly data published by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), the prison population of England and Wales stood at 87,499 on Monday (September 28). This is up from 85,761 on June 29, marking a rise of 1,738, or 2%.
Scheme needed to prevent justice system collapse
Following the summer where the scheme dominated the headlines amid backlash from members of the public, ministers say it is needed to prevent the justice system from collapsing. Any criminal who has been jailed for a range of offences, including members of child grooming gangs convicted of indecent assault, will be excluded from the scheme. The scheme will also exclude prisoners guilty of manslaughter.
This means the killers of Pc Andrew Harper, who died in the line of duty in 2019, will not be eligible. Prime Minister Andy Burnham faced significant backlash for his initial plans to overhaul the scheme. Prior to the changes being made to the scheme, Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole, who were convicted of Pc Harper’s manslaughter in 2020, would have been eligible for early release from next year.
Justice Secretary apologises to victims
Justice Secretary Alex Norris has apologised to victims who faced a summer of uncertainty. He said last month: “I have heard directly how angry and upset the family are and with good reason, the killing of Andrew Harper was a terrible thing that shocked the nation, and I know that there is upset about this. We couldn't draw the exemptions wide enough to include manslaughter as well. I am deeply sorry about that, but we've made the decisions we've made to make sure that we have a justice system that stands up in the future.”
The 2026 Sentencing Act is what sparked the expansion of the scheme. The act allows ministers to reduce the point at which certain prisoners can be freed from 40% of a fixed-term sentence to a third. The first phase of the scheme is likely to see several hundred people released from prison on Thursday. More are set to follow in the coming months.
Prison population near record high
The total prison population of England and Wales is now just 1,022 below the record high of 88,521. The latter figure was recorded on September 6, 2024, in the wake of the public disorder that followed the Southport killings earlier that year. Four days after this, the Government launched the early release scheme. Public anger was sparked in the weeks after this over images of prisoners celebrating their early release.
Daniel Dowling-Brooks, an inmate, said ‘big up Keir Starmer’ as he was picked up in a convoy of a white Bentley and black Mercedes G-Wagon outside HMP Swaleside in Kent in October 2024. A prisoner staying at the same jail was welcomed with an embrace as he was picked up in a black Rolls-Royce by a group of men in matching hoodies.
According to the latest MoJ data, a total of 70,066 prisoners were released under the scheme up to the end of March 2026. Since the scheme was launched, prison numbers have fluctuated mostly between 86,000 and 88,000. The current scheme is not the first of its kind, with the previous Conservative government having a separate process which saw 13,325 prisoners in England and Wales freed early between October 17, 2023, and September 9, 2024.
