France Football, the organiser of the Ballon d'Or, is investigating a series of suspicious bets that correctly predicted the exact top-five finishing order of this year's award and generated nearly $200,000 (£149,000) in winnings. The event's organisers have also contacted the police over the matter.
It has been alleged that 12 accounts on Polymarket, an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, placed the bets, with more than $264,000 wagered on the outcome before Monday's ceremony. The extraordinary accuracy of the predictions has raised serious questions about a potential leak of confidential results before football's most prestigious individual award.
Exact Predictions Match Official Results
Harry Kane was crowned the winner at the ceremony at the London Palladium, finishing ahead of Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi. Remarkably, this was the exact order predicted by the group of accounts identified in French media outlet Upside's investigation.
Rather than spreading their money across different outcomes, the accounts concentrated their wagers on a specific scenario: Kane winning, followed by Mbappé in second, Yamal in third, Rodri in fourth and Messi in fifth. Every position subsequently matched the official results, generating nearly $200,000 in profits.
Accounts Show Similar Patterns
According to Raphaël Pautard, the co-founder of Upside, his team identified 12 Polymarket accounts created between 1 October and 20 October. The accounts displayed strikingly similar patterns of activity, leading investigators to suspect they could be connected to the same individual or group. Seven of the 12 accounts had not participated in any other betting markets, while six placed their first bets just 15 minutes after being created.
Pautard revealed that his team managed to trace one transaction back to a French platform. After sharing the relevant blockchain transactions and wallet addresses with the company's team, the platform reportedly confirmed it had identified the individual behind one of the accounts involved in funding the suspicious bets. The identity of that individual has not been publicly disclosed, but the development could prove significant in establishing connections between the accounts and tracing the money behind the wagers.
Investigation Opened
Upside passed its findings to France Football, which Groupe Amaury owns and which has organised the awards since 1956. They are understood to have received confirmation on Friday afternoon that an investigation has been opened, with the French police also set to be informed. France Football has been contacted for comment.
According to the investigation by Upside, one account purchased a contract predicting Kane would win at 37 cents before selling it when the price reached 67 cents. The funds were subsequently redirected towards bets on specific finishing positions, including Yamal finishing third. This sequence of transactions has attracted attention because it suggests the account holder adjusted their strategy as the relevant markets developed.
Before the ceremony, France Football had indicated that only a handful of people knew the winner in advance. The possibility that confidential information could have reached betting accounts before the official announcement is therefore a serious concern, particularly given the precision of the predictions and the amount of money involved. “How do we keep the winner's identity hidden? I think a well-kept secret is one that is shared with as few people as possible,” said the former France Football editor Pascal Ferré last week.
