Petrol and diesel cars could be completely off UK roads within 20 years, according to a new prediction. Dr Leah-Nani Alconcel, a University of Birmingham professor and planetary exploration engineer, has suggested combustion models will "disappear" around the "mid-to-late 2040s".
UK officials will stop the sale of brand new petrol and diesel models by 2030, but second-hand vehicles can remain on the road. Used cars can have a long lifespan, with most road-going models lasting well over 10 years, meaning it could take another 20 years from now until all petrol and diesel combustion models are off the roads.
Existing cars can still be driven and sold
Speaking exclusively to the Express, Dr Leah-Nani said: "Sales of new pure petrol and diesel cars are due to end in 2030, and hybrids will follow in 2035. Existing cars can still be driven and sold after that, though. Cars typically stay on the road for well over a decade, so without intervention most second-hand petrol and diesel cars would not disappear until the mid-to-late 2040s."
Petrol is still the most dominant fuel type on the road, with data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealing that over 720,000 models have been sold so far this year. In comparison, just under 455,000 fully electric models have left forecourts, with a similar number of hybrid models.
Diesel demand falls
Demand for diesel vehicles is now beginning to fall, with just 77,683 cars sold so far in 2026, down from the 83,656 at this stage last year. It is expected that demand for petrol and diesel cars will naturally tail off, with no formal deadline set for when second-hand combustion models will be off the roads.
However, Dr Leah-Nani stressed that officials could consider one method if they wanted to speed up the process. She told the Express: "Consumers need incentives to convert to electric vehicles. The 2009 scrappage scheme was extremely effective in removing older petrol and diesel vehicles from the roads, and a similar initiative could accelerate the process considerably."
