Sixteen bets of $100,000 each accurately predicted the timing of US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February, while a single user made over $550,000 betting on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's removal just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, traders placed $950m in bets that oil prices would fall, hours before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran. These well-timed wagers, totalling over $1bn, have sparked concerns among lawmakers and experts over potential insider trading.
The proliferation of online betting markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as commodity derivatives like oil futures, has enabled bets on virtually any news event. An analysis by the New York Times found that on 27 February, about 150 Polymarket accounts bet $855,000 that the US would strike Iran the next day, with 16 accounts pocketing more than $100,000 each. A complaint filed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by consumer advocacy group Public Citizen highlighted a single anonymous user, “Magamyman”, who made over $553,000 on Khamenei's assassination. The complaint also cited a crypto-analytics firm that identified six 'suspected insiders' who made $1.2m on Polymarket after the killing.
Similar surges occurred in oil futures markets. On 23 March, traders bet $580m just 15 minutes before Trump said on social media that the US was having 'productive' talks with Iran, causing oil prices to plummet. On 7 April, $950m was spent on oil futures hours before the ceasefire announcement. Andrew Verstein, a law professor at UCLA, noted that while each trade could be lucky, many bear hallmarks of suspicious activity warranting investigation. Craig Holman of Public Citizen said the timing and amount of bets make it 'very likely that someone had insider knowledge'.
Leaders of US federal agencies and some members of Congress have called for a crackdown on suspicious trading across different marketplaces. However, Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University, questioned whether the problem is lack of legislation or enforcement capabilities. 'To have a law that can't really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it's sort of putting the cart before the horse,' he said. Holman expressed scepticism about how bold the CFTC will be in its investigations.
