The Met Office has issued its verdict on the polar vortex for Winter 2026, warning that the "unprecedented" El Niño weather pattern could influence global conditions, but noting that suggestions of snow in the UK are currently "unfounded."
El Niño, which played a role in driving temperatures to the hottest summer ever recorded, is expected to continue impacting climate conditions worldwide. Meteorologists said it remains unclear whether the phenomenon will be enough to push frigid Arctic air further south later this autumn and winter.
El Niño and the polar vortex
Although El Niño can sometimes weaken the stratospheric polar vortex when it reaches its strongest phase, experts caution that it is still too early to determine how the phenomenon will influence temperatures in the months ahead. Disruptions to the vortex can increase the likelihood of cold outbreaks in parts of Europe and North America.
The National Weather Agency said "it was too far away to give any forecast information" about whether a polar vortex could impact the UK, adding that it remains "just one possible outcome dependent on many competing factors."
Expert warnings on unprecedented event
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions at the Met Office, said: "We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event. The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño."
He added: "Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude, but we are already seeing expected effects worldwide."
Forecast for October and November
The Met Office's long-range forecast between October 12 and November 5 reads: "Remaining changeable through the middle of October, as a series of low pressure systems run across the North Atlantic, often to the north and northwest of the UK, bringing occasional bands of rain and strong winds, but interspersed with brighter and more showery conditions."
It adds: "Rain will be most prevalent across hills in the west and especially northwest, where above average rainfall is likely through this period. Longer drier interludes are more favoured in sheltered southern and eastern parts, but even here it is likely to be wetter than during recent weeks. Whilst brief cooler interludes are possible, temperatures are likely to be a little above average in many areas for the period as a whole, potentially quite warm in parts of the southeast early in the period."
The forecast continues: "The remainder of October and into early November will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall, with areas of low pressure often passing close to the UK from the North Atlantic, interspersed by occasional ridges of high pressure."
It concludes: "As such, showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times, with the wettest and windiest weather typically in the west and northwest, driest conditions more favoured in sheltered southern and eastern parts. A trend to more widely unsettled conditions is possible into November. Whilst some occasional colder interludes will be possible at times, temperatures are likely to be near or a little above average for the period as a whole."
