BBC Weather forecasters have issued their verdict on whether the UK could face an early cold Arctic outbreak this month, after weather models showed snow possible in parts of Scotland. In their forecast for October 19 to November 1, they say there is no sign of such an outbreak.
Forecasters have suggested extreme wintry conditions could be on the cards before the end of this year due to the record-breaking El Nino. The Met Office has said El Nino could lead to the polar vortex weakening, which may in turn lead to Sudden Stratospheric Warming. This process is usually associated with cold snaps, and is what led to the ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018.
Snow forecast for Scotland
In the shorter term, weather models have shown some snow could be on the cards in parts of Scotland towards the middle of this month, particularly over higher ground where 5cm (roughly two inches) is possible. Although this isn’t unusual for October, it would be the first major snowfall of the season.
BBC Weather forecasters say “drier than normal conditions” are on the cards for most, particularly those in southern areas, although “occasional frontal systems” may bring more rain to northern areas, especially Scotland.
Temperatures near normal
Although there is the potential for “chilly and foggy nights” at times, the forecast states temperatures are more likely to be “close to or a little above normal than below” on the whole.
It adds: “There is no sign yet of any set up that might lead to a risk of an early cold Arctic outbreak.”
“There is a chance of an alternative outcome where high pressure shifts farther away, allowing low pressure systems closer to the UK, with a wetter and windier but mild outcome.”
Met Office outlook
While the Met Office says “occasional colder interludes will be possible at times” as we head towards November, it too says temperatures “are likely to be near or a little above average for the period as a whole”.
Its forecast for October 21 to November 4 adds: “The remainder of October and into early November will probably maintain a changeable pattern overall, with areas of low pressure often passing close to the UK from the North Atlantic, interspersed by occasional ridges of high pressure.”
“As such, showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times, with the wettest and windiest weather typically in the west and northwest, driest conditions more favoured in sheltered southern and eastern parts. A trend to more widely unsettled conditions is possible into November.”
