The average of 2.70 non-penalty goals per game in the 2026-27 Premier League season is higher than last season and two of the four previous campaigns. Yet matches have averaged 2.88 non-penalty expected goals, the second most in the past six seasons, meaning chances have been going to waste.
If the 20 teams converted at the par rate, there would have been almost two extra goals per week. The proportion of games drawn is higher than in any past Premier League season, and some tied matches might have been settled had the finishing been up to the mark.
Widespread underperformance
Fourteen clubs have scored fewer goals than expected, whether penalties are included or not, up from 10 last season. Eight teams are within a goal of their underlying numbers, while the remaining 12 are split 8-4 towards the underachievers.
Week-by-week performances are also crumbling. There were 24 instances of a team scoring at least one goal fewer than their xG implied across the first five match weeks, twice as many as in the opening 50 games last season.
Chance quality does not appear to be the issue, as the expected goals per non-penalty shot average only drops once more decimal places are applied. A Premier League team is averaging 24.8 touches in the opposition box per game, down just 0.6 on last season.
Team and player reliance
Four of last season’s top five are having fewer box touches per match, with Aston Villa and Liverpool having seen around a third disappear from their averages. Manchester United, the one team from the quintet to increase, have only played one club that finished in the top 10 last season, and five of their eight goals occurred against Championship runners-up Ipswich.
United top the Premier League for non-penalty shots and are joint-second bottom for the average expected goal value. Their top player for non-penalty xG, Bryan Mbeumo, is one of 10 players who have scored at least one goal fewer than underlying numbers imply he should have, having underachieved by 1.19 last season.
The top player for expected goals at almost every Premier League club is having a bigger share of the xG pie than last season. These players have collectively scored 6.8 non-penalty goals fewer than expected, almost 40% of the shortfall across the division from just 20 players.
Specific cases
Thierno Barry has taken the chance for 49.4% of Everton’s non-penalty expected goals this season, up from 17.7% last term, scoring twice from chances valued at 3.5 xG. Alexander Isak has seen a greater leap in share of team expected goals at Liverpool, though injuries limited his appearances last season.
Isak’s replacement at Newcastle, Yoanne Wissa, underperformed against xG by more than two goals last season, as did Marcus Tavernier at Bournemouth. At Tottenham, centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke is their leading player for non-penalty expected goals.
Fulham’s Gonzalo García and Ipswich’s Emersonn, both 22 and new to English football, lead their clubs in xG, while Hull’s Oli McBurnie has never scored more than six goals in a Premier League campaign. Erling Haaland remains a reliable presence in the xG-heavy frontman stakes, but the situation at Manchester City may affect his form.
Excessive reliance on players who can be forgiven for underperforming could prove to be a small-sample statistical quirk that is quickly remedied. Until it is, do not bank on the goal rate reaching the expected goal level in the Premier League.
