New drone launch bases could support future Russian strikes against NATO, experts have warned. Launch sites for Moscow's long-range strike drones are being expanded along the border with Ukraine and Belarus, which is "likely to intensify" strikes against Russia's neighbour and "possibly NATO", experts say.
59 New Launch Rails Built
Russia has constructed 59 new drone-launching rails at 10 different sites which can house over 1,000 drones, according to reports. Intelligence suggests that 20 of the new launch-rails are "extensively long", which, it is suggested, indicates that Vladimir Putin's forces could use them to launch Geran-4 and Geran–5 jet-powered strike drones. These can fly at a range of 450 to 850 kilometers and 950 to 1000 kilometers, according to experts.
Purpose of the New Sites
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote: "Russia is likely building these additional launch sites in western Russia to increase its capacity to launch larger long-range drone salvos as part of Russia‘s regular strike packages across Ukraine."
It added: "Russia also likely seeks to specifically use jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones to strike deeper into western Ukraine by leveraging the drones’ greater speed and survivability to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses."
Survivability and Precision
"Russia is also likely moving its drone launching sites into western Russia in an attempt to protect Russian drone infrastructure from Ukrainian drones." "Ukrainian forces have successfully struck Russian one-way attack drone launch points near occupied Donetsk City, for example, so establishing alternative launch points further away in Russia may improve their survivability."
Specialists also noted that Kremlin could be preparing to use its Rassvet satellite constellation - which is referred to as the Russian version of Starlink - by "leveraging new launch sites". This "could allow Russian forces to conduct higher-precision strikes against Ukraine‘s rear and air defense systems from multiple directions".
Potential Threat to NATO
The ISW then stated what the development could mean in terms of the future of European security. It is feared that a Russian strike on NATO territory could trigger a wider conflict due to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty stipulating that an armed attack against one of its members shall be considered an attack against them all.
The ISW wrote: "New Russian drone launch bases could also support future Russian strike packages against NATO, should the Kremlin decide to do so, as the bases would enable larger salvo volume, and the launching stations would support drone ranges into NATO territory."
