London is the most vulnerable city in the world to AI automation, according to the OECD's Economic Outlook. The report estimates that nearly three in four jobs in the capital are at risk now or in the near future, a higher proportion than in New York, San Francisco, Paris, or Berlin. This is because many of London's jobs are concentrated in finance, professional services, and creative industries.
London's unique exposure
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reckons three-quarters of London jobs are highly exposed to AI, meaning more than half of their daily tasks could be performed by a bot. This contrasts with a UK average of 38 per cent for roles at risk of automation, as reported by GLA economist Jeff Dwan-O'Reilly in a study commissioned by Mayor Sadiq Khan.
Dwan-O'Reilly's 71-page report, published three months ago, states that at least 46 per cent of London's workers – 2.4 million – are in roles where generative AI could automate a share of their tasks. More than 300,000 administrative positions face the highest exposure, as clerical tasks align closely with GenAI capabilities. A further 748,000 roles in IT, data analysis, and secretarial work are at risk, though exposure varies across tasks.
Vulnerable groups and sectors
The report identifies women, who are over-represented in administrative and clerical roles, young people, and those with higher educational levels as among the most exposed. Brokers, web designers, telephone salespersons, and journalists are also vulnerable. Jobs least at risk include architects, barbers, chefs, chief executives, driving instructors, florists, and undertakers.
Another analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warns that 3.4 million people in the UK could lose their jobs because of AI in the next 10 years. It says around 10 per cent of the UK's workforce could be exposed to substitution by AI by 2036, with London again in the firing line due to its concentration of banks, accountants, law firms, and creative industries.
Real-world impact
Already, major recruiters are cutting back on graduate hires because technology can do the work usually assigned to new recruits. A recent deal in the City of London has provoked shock: private equity giant CVC put Greek e-commerce business Skroutz up for sale, and bankers were replaced by AI. Interested buyers were directed to a data portal with a chatbot analyst that answered queries about financial information and due diligence.
Skroutz co-founder George Hadjigeorgiou, a tech AI innovator, suggested the AI-handled sale. He wrote: "A new era in software development has begun, bespoke software is here and it'll be a lot cheaper and far more tailored to a company's needs than ever."
Responses from leaders
Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, said in his annual letter to shareholders that AI means we must change our perception of skilled trades. He noted that the average plumber has been portrayed negatively on television while investment bankers are idolised, adding: "I think what we did was wrong. We really put judgment on so many jobs and so many people who probably should not have gone into banking or media or law, probably should have been a great worker with their hands, and we need to now rebalance that approach."
Mayor Sadiq Khan has set up the London AI and Jobs Taskforce, chaired by tech entrepreneur Baroness Martha Lane Fox. Its objectives include assessing workforce exposure, evaluating how AI will impact jobs in heavily exposed sectors, upskilling Londoners with free AI training, and protecting employment pathways. It is accompanied by a £12 million package to help small businesses integrate AI.
At the Bloomberg CityLab Summit in Madrid, Khan said: "I want to be clear that a high degree of exposure to AI does not necessarily mean job losses." He added: "Our research indicates there's every chance that AI will augment and assist the Londoners working in these roles, rather than eliminating their jobs completely. But given the numbers of Londoners that are exposed – and the finding that 7 per cent of large UK businesses have already used AI to cut staff – we cannot afford to be complacent."
The article concludes that Khan must stop ordering reports and joining worthy bodies and come up with a proper plan for London – and fast.
