Roman Yampolskiy, an AI safety and cybersecurity expert at the University of Louisville, has forecast a 99.9% probability that artificial intelligence will eliminate mankind within the coming century. He made the prediction during an appearance on Lex Friedman's podcast.
Throughout the two-hour discussion, Yampolskiy argued that no AI system deployed to date has been completely reliable, voicing scepticism about future iterations being exempt from catastrophic failures. He belongs to a small yet outspoken circle of pioneering AI researchers voicing such fears amid President Donald Trump's AI race.
Book on AI risks
Yampolskiy has written a book titled "AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable," marketed as providing "a broad introduction to the core problems, such as the unpredictability of AI outcomes or the difficulty in explaining AI decisions."
He explained: "This book arrives at more complex issues of ownership and control, conducting an in-depth analysis of potential hazards and unintentional consequences."
"The book then wraps up with philosophical and existential musings, delving into questions of AI personhood, consciousness, and the distinction between human intelligence and artificial general intelligence (AGI)."
Conflicting research
Technology experts say the original pioneers of AI, including Yampolskiy, are amongst those raising the most urgent warnings about the potentially catastrophic consequences this technological breakthrough might trigger.
Nevertheless, certain research disputes Yampolskiy's apocalyptic forecast, indicating a considerably less threatening danger than his projections suggest. Research carried out by the University of Oxford in England and the University of Bonn in Germany discovered just a 5% probability that AI will eliminate humanity, based on evaluations from over 2,700 AI academics.
"People try to talk as if expecting extinction risk is a minority view, but among AI experts it is mainstream," warns Katja Grace, one of the paper's authors. "The disagreement seems to be whether the risk is 1% or 20%."
Dismissals and warnings
Several leading AI authorities have completely dismissed claims about AI sparking an apocalypse, including Google Brain co-founder Andrew Ng and AI pioneer Yann Lecun, with the latter alleging tech giants like OpenAI's Sam Altman harbour hidden agendas behind their fearmongering about catastrophic AI consequences.
OpenAI's Altman has delivered several disturbing statements regarding his industry. He warned that AI will probably destroy countless positions, which he brushed off as not "real work," remarks that sparked a furious wave of criticism.
Mirroring Altman's concerns, various AI detractors have similarly raised the alert, proposing that the technology could trigger an economic collapse by replacing numerous workers across every sector without exception. More than a decade ago, in 2015, Altman issued a grim forecast, declaring, "AI will probably most likely lead to the end of the world, but in the meantime, there'll be great companies."
He also came under heavy fire earlier this year for suggesting that widespread implementation of AI would necessitate "changes to the social contract."
