The Vuelta a España, the final Grand Tour of 2026, rolls away from the start line in Monaco on Saturday, and the peloton’s most frequent question is who will come second.
Tadej Pogacar, making his first appearance in the Spanish race since 2019, is the overwhelming favourite to top the podium in Granada on 13 September, with his rivals already seemingly accepting his supremacy.
Pogacar’s Grand Tour dominance
The 27-year-old has yet to win the Vuelta, but if he does, it will be his seventh Grand Tour win and will see him become the ninth rider to win all three of Europe’s major stage races. He would join Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Jacques Anquetil, Alberto Contador, Chris Froome, Felice Gimondi, Jonas Vingegaard and Vincenzo Nibali.
Pogacar won last month’s Tour de France by almost six and a half minutes and is expected to repeat that level of domination. The Slovenian was last beaten in a Grand Tour in 2023 and is hoping to become the first rider to achieve the Tour-Vuelta double since Chris Froome in 2017.
The absence of his old rival Vingegaard, who crashed out of the Tour, and the Tour runner-up in Paris, Remco Evenepoel, will further boost Pogacar’s chances. Vingegaard, still recovering from a collarbone fracture, has thrown in the towel on his 2026 season.
Rivals concede to Pogacar
The Danish rider Mattias Skjelmose revealed that Vingegaard has become disheartened by Pogacar’s domination. “Jonas says: ‘I can’t do any more. What am I supposed to do? I produce the best I’ve ever done and he just rides away from me,’” Skjelmose told a Danish podcast.
Pogacar is expected to be further motivated by a lucrative new contract which, it is understood, will keep him racing for the UAE Emirates XRG team until 2031 or possibly even 2032.
Pogacar will roll down the hill from his home in Monaco for the Vuelta’s opening weekend in the principality, expecting a coronation. After the opening time trial stage, there is a lengthy trawl through Provence, followed by a transfer across the Pyrenees, via Andorra, to Spain.
Route and contenders
Over 3,275km, the peloton will tackle seven summit finishes, face extreme weather, and ride the numerous rough and remote roads that characterise the Spanish race. Most of the decisive stages will take place in the south of Spain, where hot conditions are expected to continue.
With the mountain finish to Font Romeu in the Pyrenees coming as early as stage three, Pogacar may soon find himself in the lead. Few among the other podium contenders have ever been able to contain him, except for his compatriot Primoz Roglic.
The 36-year-old, memorably overhauled by Pogacar on the penultimate stage of the 2020 Tour, has won the Vuelta four times but accepts that a fifth win is unlikely. “Winning it four times is something I could never have imagined. That’s why I don’t want to put any extra pressure on myself,” he said.
For the Netcompany Ineos team, it will be a poignant return to Grand Tour racing, as they come to terms with the loss suffered by Josh Tarling, whose brother Finlay Tarling was killed during last week’s Volta a Portugal. Josh is riding in Spain in honour of his brother.
Their mother, Dawn, posted on Instagram: “Finlay was so incredibly proud of his big brother, and would be watching nose to the TV and shouting as he competed. So it is right that Josh honours that love and pride by doing what Fin always loved watching him do.”
The British team will be led by Scotland’s Oscar Onley, who finished fourth in the 2025 Tour de France, but missed this year’s race through injury. The 23-year-old was in winning form in the recent Tour of Burgos, and director of racing Geraint Thomas is eager to see Onley racing in the Vuelta.
“This is Oscar’s first Grand Tour riding for us and he is ambitious, excited and wants to get racing,” the 2018 Tour winner said. “He has had some setbacks this season but his win in Burgos showed that he has recovered well and has good legs.”
Richard Carapaz, winner of two stages in this year’s Tour de France, including a victory on Alpe d’Huez, is perhaps more likely than most to take Pogacar on. The Ecuadorian, who has finished on the podium of both the Tour and the Vuelta in the past, will not let Pogacar’s dominance cramp his style.
But however much his rivals huff and puff, this will be the Pogacar show. He is not immune to misfortune, but he is expected to win at a canter. Anything less will be a major upset for an athlete who exerts a tight grip on his peers and who seems to have become almost infallible.
