Manchester City have been found guilty on 114 of their Premier League charges, and speculation over the punishment is rife. The Premier League released its findings on Tuesday, confirming City were guilty on all but one charge. The club responded with a fiercely defensive statement.
Former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has suggested the league should consider stripping City of the titles they won between 2009 and 2018, the period to which the charges apply. Were that to happen, there would be a significant reckoning.
What would change without City's results?
Removing City's results from those seasons wouldn't just produce new champions in 2011/12, 2013/14 and 2017/18 – they would also impact Champions League qualification and Premier League survival for several clubs. We have gone through the nine seasons in question to see who lost out the most.
In 2009/10, City's results don't change a great deal, except giving Everton European football and ensuring survival for Burnley. West Ham would leapfrog Wigan, and Blackburn would overtake Birmingham in less consequential positions. Hull City arguably have the most painful outcome – they wouldn't survive even with City bumped to 20th and would lose the four points they took off the team.
The title-changing seasons
Blackpool are the big winners in 2010/11. They picked up no points from City and were relegated behind Wolves and Birmingham, both of whom got some change from Roberto Mancini's team. The alternate table would see Birmingham relegated by a single goal on goal difference, rather than the single point which saw them demoted in real life. There's also a Champions League play-off spot for Spurs and a Europa League berth for Liverpool.
Taking away City's results from 2011/12 makes for a far less exciting final day – the title has long been decided, while QPR and Bolton are both already safe. The most interesting change comes in the Champions League spots, with Spurs overtaking Arsenal to finish a distant second behind Manchester United. Newcastle are the ones denied by Chelsea winning their Champions League final against Bayern Munich.
In 2012/13, a demotion for City allows Liverpool to squeak above their rivals on goal difference to claim a Europa League spot. Spurs would claim Champions League football with second-place City ceasing to be a factor. As for relegation, 18th-place Wigan would jump a place, allowing them to celebrate survival as well as their FA Cup win at City's expense.
2013/14 is the second year in this period where we'd have a different champion – Liverpool. Arsenal would be their closest challengers rather than Chelsea, with the Blues losing their two victories over City, while Tim Sherwood's Spurs are upgraded to the Champions League spots. Norwich would survive, albeit only just, as they lose the point from their goalless draw against Manuel Pellegrini's side.
Later seasons and the main takeaways
In 2014/15, it's another Champions League qualification for Spurs, who climb from fifth to fourth. There's also a European play-off spot for Swansea, who move up a spot to seventh. At the other end, Hull earn a reprieve, finishing five points clear of Burnley after the Clarets' four points against City are removed.
2015/16 is among the seasons affected least. Leicester's miraculous title win still happens without their four points against Pellegrini's men, while Arsenal and Spurs are still next in line. The only notable changes are Louis van Gaal's Manchester United creeping into the Champions League spots and Rafa Benitez's Newcastle surviving relegation, with City shunted to last place.
Arsenal will consider themselves unlucky to have missed out on Champions League qualification in the real world. Here, though, Arsene Wenger's team climb above City and also above a Liverpool side who took points off Pep Guardiola's side in the Catalan's first year in charge. For the second time, Hull City earn a reprieve with just 34 points on the board. Bournemouth climb a couple of places and secure a season in Europe despite picking up just 46 points from their 38 games.
Unsurprisingly for a season where City racked up 100 points, there isn't a great deal of change in 2017/18. Runners-up Manchester United climb to top spot, while Antonio Conte's Chelsea climb into the fourth Champions League place. There would also be a European spot for Everton, despite them losing the point they gained at the Etihad Stadium in August. At the bottom, Swansea would join Huddersfield in surviving with just 28 goals scored, ahead of Stoke on goal difference.
The headline changes relate to those three City titles. The alternative tables would bring two more for Manchester United – one under Sir Alex Ferguson and one under Jose Mourinho – and one for Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool. At the bottom end, Hull are the only team who would earn not one but two reprieves from relegation. The biggest losers from City's results are Tottenham, who would have four additional Champions League campaigns under their belt.
Of course, this is an imperfect science, given the number of moving parts. It's also worth recognising that City consider the situation by no means over, but it's still interesting for fans to see what might have been.
