Newcastle United's underlying statistics paint a concerning picture for head coach Matthias Jaissle, despite the team sitting 12th in the Premier League table after 10 matches.
The Magpies have collected 12 points from their opening 10 games, with three wins, three draws, and four defeats, leaving them four points adrift of the top six and four points clear of the bottom three. However, the expected points total, which accounts for each team's expected goals for and against, suggests Newcastle should be in 17th place, just above the relegation zone, indicating they are outperforming their underlying performance.
Goalkeeper and Defensive Concerns
Lukas Hornicek has the best average goals prevented of any goalkeeper in the league, a statistic that is as impressive as it is worrying, given it reflects the number of chances Newcastle are conceding. Additionally, Newcastle average the most clearances per match of any team, another sign that their back four is under significant pressure.
At the other end of the pitch, none of Newcastle's three forwards—Will Osula, Yoane Wissa, or Matias Fernandez-Pardo—have scored more than one goal this season. This lack of firepower is compounded by Opta's fixture difficulty ratings, which show Newcastle have had the easiest run of fixtures of any Premier League side in the opening 10 matches, yet they have picked up fewer than the average points total of 13.
Tougher Fixtures Ahead
Newcastle's next nine fixtures are tougher than any other side in the division, and with only one win in their last six matches in all competitions, and two in their last eight, there are fears the team could be heading downwards rather than towards European qualification. Their next four matches include games against the top two sides, Arsenal and Brighton, followed by visits from Manchester United and local rivals Sunderland to St James' Park.
The team's creativity in forward areas has also been highlighted as an issue. A study by stats website Ballity, looking at Premier League number 10s as 'box crashers' and 'creators', found that Wissa and Joe Willock, along with Brighton's Yasin Ayari, are categorised as 'box threat only'. Another study on full-backs comparing attacking and defensive output identified Amar Dedic and Lewis Miley as two of four players in the division who rank low on both.
These examples highlight the deficiencies, both systemic and individual, that Jaissle must address if Newcastle are to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle. The team has missed an opportunity in a favourable run of fixtures, taking just four points from matches against Coventry, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Everton, and Fulham. Newcastle must find a way to outrun the underlying numbers against some of the strongest teams in the division between now and the end of the year, a test of Jaissle's managerial mettle.
