England must beat Spain in Madrid on Sunday to finish top of Nations League Group A3, despite trailing the reigning world and European champions by three points. Victory over Croatia on Thursday evening confirmed England's place in the knockout phase with a game to spare.
Spain lead the group courtesy of their win at Wembley Stadium during the autumn international break. Since then, La Roja have beaten Croatia and the Czech Republic twice each and only need to avoid defeat against England to guarantee top spot and an easier quarter-final draw.
Goal Difference Advantage
England hold a superior goal difference of +12 compared to Spain's +9. As a result, a win for Thomas Tuchel's side in Madrid would be enough to see them top the group at Spain's expense.
The UEFA tiebreaker first looks at the head-to-head record when sides are level on points, then total goal difference in the two games between the sides. Spain won the reverse fixture by a one-goal margin in September, so any margin of victory for England - whether 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 - will guarantee top spot in Group A3.
Quarter-Final Implications
Topping the group would set up a possible quarter-final showdown with France, Greece or Denmark, as things currently stand. Group winners will be seeded for the Nations League quarter-final draw, securing home advantage in their second leg ties.
Teams from the same group cannot be paired together in the knockout stage, so England and Spain would be kept apart. Were England to finish second, their potential quarter-final opponents would be Italy, Netherlands or Portugal.
