Ascot's Champions Day produced two stunning longshot victories on Saturday, with Powerful Glory winning the Champions Sprint at 200-1 and Cicero's Gift taking the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at 100-1. The results were so unexpected that they earned a mention on the BBC's main evening news bulletin.
While such results are rare, they are becoming less so. Since January 2023, there have been four occasions in Britain where two winners at 100-1 or bigger were returned on the same card, including Saturday. In the 15 years before that, the feat never occurred once across roughly 22,000 fixtures. Lingfield saw similar shocks in November 2024 and November 2023.
Data show a clear trend. Between 2015 and 2019, runners starting at 100-1 or bigger won an average of 5.5 races per year, a strike rate of 0.164%. From 2020 to 2024, that average jumped to 20 winners per year, with a strike rate of 0.242%.
The likely cause dates to 2020, when the pandemic forced a change in how starting prices are compiled. Previously, prices were surveyed from on-course bookmakers' boards. With racing held behind closed doors, the system switched to off-course prices. On-course bookies warned at the time that this could 'shave' the prices of fancied runners, making outsiders appear longer. A horse that might have been 50-1 in 2019 could now be returned at 100-1 or 150-1, while a 6-5 favourite might be listed at 11-10.
That prediction appears to have been borne out. While the overall numbers remain small in the context of around 10,000 races a year, the increase in longshot winners is notable, particularly for betting shops where many bets are still settled at starting price.
