Last Friday, Andy Burnham left his office for a 20-minute walk to The Badger, a new gastropub in Manchester's trendy Northern Quarter, which he had agreed to open. Two and a half hours later, he finally arrived. 'It was madness,' one observer reported. 'People were stopping him for selfies, wanting to chat, shaking his hand. He was mobbed.'
The Plot Against Starmer
In the wake of last week's local election implosion, allies of Keir Starmer grasped for crumbs of comfort, briefing journalists that the results were so poor there was no effective route for the King of the North to engineer a return to Downing Street. Next week, those hopes will be dashed. 'Andy has the seat lined up,' an ally confirmed. 'He's going to go for it.'
The identity of the constituency is a tightly guarded secret, but Burnham's team is completely confident he will win the subsequent by-election. 'We're not idiots,' one ally explained. 'We've been conducting our own private polling and crunching national and local polls. He'll win.'
After months of speculation, the strategy designed to secure Starmer's removal has been revealed. Within the next seven days, Burnham will announce his intention to stand for Westminster again, and the seat that will be the vehicle. Soon after, a raft of Parliamentary Labour Party members will publicly call on Starmer to confirm he will not prevent Burnham from standing or delay the contest. If Starmer agrees, the immediate challenge to his leadership will be temporarily parked. If he refuses, a delegation of Cabinet members will privately tell him to reverse his decision. If he refuses again, they will seek to remove him from office.
Factors Behind the Confrontation
The decision to confront the Prime Minister openly stems from several factors. For the past two months, Labour backbenchers have been discreetly sounding out colleagues for a challenge. One minister said: 'I was contacted in April to ask if I'd join in signing a letter calling for Keir to go.' They politely demurred. The organising was led by members of the influential Tribune Group of MPs, whose chair, Louise Haigh, is a close ally of Burnham and Angela Rayner. Members were primed to act on Haigh's signal, depending on the local election outcome.
As late as Friday morning, the group was still uncertain about whether to move, as results were still coming in and some returns seemed less catastrophic than predicted. But then two things happened. First, it became clear that London results would show a major breakthrough for the Greens, mirroring early gains for Reform in the North, and Labour's extinction in Wales. 'London is f*****g f****d,' one despairing backbencher texted. Then, Cabinet members and the parliamentary party reacted to Starmer's bullish statement that he had no intention of resigning, saying 'tough days like this strengthen my resolve'. One veteran Cabinet minister called the interview 'tone deaf and completely counterproductive', comparing it to Tony Blair's 'go on and on' interview that forced him out.
Another Labour veteran messaged: 'This guy is an entitled, unprincipled, delusional, useless, selfish lying t****r, surrounded by other entitled, unprincipled, delusional, useless, selfish lying t*****s in No 10.'
The Signal and Aftermath
In mid-afternoon, Haigh delivered an interview stating: 'What is abundantly clear is that unless the Government delivers significant and urgent change, the Prime Minister cannot lead us into another election.' That was the signal Labour MPs were waiting for. In the coming hours, dozens of backbenchers fanned out across social media calling for Starmer to set out a departure timetable. The carefully choreographed attack caught Downing Street by surprise. 'Keir's team have known this moment was coming for months, but when the PLP finally moved, they were asleep,' one minister observed.
Starmer's aides scrambled to get Cabinet ministers to put out messages of loyalty, but several senior ministers were unwilling to fall into line. Yvette Cooper, Lisa Nandy, Ed Miliband, and Shabana Mahmood all tweeted bland statements that pointedly failed to give Starmer their backing. 'They all knew what signal they were sending,' a colleague revealed.
Obstacles for Burnham
Despite the tight coordination, Burnham will not have a completely clear path. Allies of Angela Rayner insist she still harbours prime ministerial ambitions, but support for her has faded over the past fortnight, with MPs reporting a negative reaction to her over the tax scandal that saw her resign from the Government. One person who emerged from Labour's drubbing with a smile was Health Secretary Wes Streeting. In Redbridge, he helped his local party fend off challenges from the Tories, Reform, and independents to retain council control. 'This shows Wes knows how to win,' an ally said. 'The Labour vote collapsed in Angela and Andy's areas. Not in ours.'
Burnham also faces a badly wounded but embittered Starmer and his increasingly dysfunctional No 10 machine. Yesterday, the Prime Minister launched yet another attempt to relaunch his collapsing premiership, which imploded on the launchpad. To widespread incredulity, he unveiled two new Government appointments: Harriet Harman, 75, as his women's adviser, and Gordon Brown, 75, as his global finance envoy. One Cabinet minister messaged: 'I'm waiting for the ghost of Barbara Castle to appear on the steps of Downing Street.' A senior backbencher responded: 'It's nuts. But more importantly, it's ineffectual.'
What amazed even normally loyal ministers was that the decision to recycle Brown and Harman was not spontaneous but months in the planning. In January, Starmer's senior aides began drawing up 'The Plan for May', a strategy to counter the predicted local elections meltdown. As one minister observed: 'How can they have seriously thought this was the best response? We took a beating in the North of England, so he rolls out Gordon, an old Scotsman, and Harriet, the quintessential North London Labour luvvie.' Another warned the move would unleash additional chaos, as Gordon would start dabbling in economic policy and Harriet would leverage her power in government strategy.
But both are unlikely to be in position long enough to do lasting damage. The dam has burst. The steady stream of Labour MPs calling for Starmer to set out a departure timetable will turn into a flood when MPs reconvene for this week's King's Speech, which will become a tsunami if he tries to stand in the way of Burnham's return to Parliament. In the wake of Friday's results, the Prime Minister vowed: 'I'm not walking away.' But as one colleague observed: 'He says he's not walking away. The problem is, the voters are.' They are about to be joined by Starmer's Cabinet, his ministers, and his party.
