A new opinion poll has given Labour a five-point lead over Reform UK, in the latest evidence of an "Andy Burnham bounce" since he became Prime Minister. The BMG Research survey, conducted exclusively for The i Paper, found that 28 per cent of respondents would vote for Labour, compared with 23 per cent for Reform. The Conservatives trailed in third on 20 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party both on 10 per cent.
If repeated at a general election, the results would make Labour the largest party, but still short of an overall majority and well below the landslide majority secured in 2024. It is the third poll this week to show Labour ahead of Reform, and marks the first time in 16 months that a party other than Reform has led a BMG survey. Rob Struthers, research director at BMG, said the figures mean "we can begin to be confident that the Burnham bounce is real".
The poll shows support for Reform has fallen by four points and the Greens by three points. Struthers said Burnham was winning back voters from parties to Labour's left, while Reform was being "squeezed on both sides" by the Conservatives and the newly formed Restore Britain party. He noted that the Tories were holding on to more of their 2024 vote under Kemi Badenoch, with fewer switching to Reform, while more Reform voters were indicating they would consider another party.
The findings are likely to fuel speculation about an early general election, but Burnham has ruled out such a move, saying he did not think "the public want it" and that he was focused on "getting the country back where it should be, getting it working". The poll also showed softening support for an early election, with 40 per cent believing Burnham should call one, down from 49 per cent last month.
Burnham's first week in No 10 has been marked by a series of popular policy announcements, including a cut to electricity bills, a £2 cap on bus fares, and a reduction in business rates for pubs and restaurants. Struthers said the flurry of announcements had "clearly struck a chord", with voters now more optimistic about the future. However, he cautioned that Burnham faced a long road ahead, citing Gordon Brown and Theresa May as examples of leaders who enjoyed honeymoons before encountering political difficulties.
