A new poll from More in Common (MIC) suggests that Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, would fare better than Sir Keir Starmer in a general election against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The survey reveals that Mr Burnham leads Mr Farage by 14 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, a result that is likely to bolster calls from his supporters for him to replace Sir Keir as Labour leader.
Burnham’s Potential Path to Leadership
To challenge for the Labour leadership, Mr Burnham must first win the Makerfield by-election, where he has been selected as the Labour candidate. The seat, which voted heavily for Brexit in 2016, is a prime target for Reform UK. The election writ has been moved, with the contest expected on 18 June.
Luke Tryl from More in Common noted that Mr Burnham’s personal popularity gives him a ‘Burnham bounce’ worth around 20 points, making him the narrow favourite. However, he warned that Labour’s internal debate over rejoining the EU could be ‘dangerous’ and cost Mr Burnham the seat. ‘If looking at rejoin is taken as a sign that people in Westminster and the Labour Party have moved on from the lessons of 2016, that is more dangerous,’ Mr Tryl said.
Polling Details and Caveats
The head-to-head poll shows Mr Burnham outperforming Sir Keir by about 10 points against Mr Farage, but Mr Tryl cautioned that such hypotheticals do not account for party records or manifestos in a general election. He also highlighted that Reform UK now claims to be the only truly national party, with Labour and the Conservatives increasingly regional.
Despite the positive polling for Mr Burnham, the Brexit row within Labour remains a significant risk. Makerfield’s strong Leave vote makes it a ‘tailor-made’ seat for Reform, and any perception that Labour is abandoning the 2016 referendum result could undermine Mr Burnham’s campaign.
