Britain's vital supply chains are unprepared for the prospect of a major shock such as war with Russia, according to a new report by the National Preparedness Commission (NPC). The study calls for bold action to match the 'worst-case scenario' planning undertaken by European states, and warns that Donald Trump's 'America First' transformation of the US has made a once-trusted ally far less reliable.
The report, launched privately at Westminster, highlights that the UK lags behind other European countries in stockpiling critical medicines. While medicine suppliers are required to hold at least eight weeks of buffer stock for hospitals, compliance is patchy and not mandated for pharmacies serving primary care. The government has no intention of producing a critical medicines list or strategically stockpiling medicines and equipment, except for military personnel in the event of a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attack. By contrast, many EU states require pharmaceutical companies to hold buffer stocks of designated medicines ranging from one to six months.
On food supply, the UK is one of the least self-sufficient countries in Europe, with no strategic stockpile and no requirement for wholesalers or distributors to hold buffer stocks. Countries such as Norway and Sweden have begun rebuilding emergency grain and food reserves, while other EU states proactively encourage households to store several days' worth of food and water for emergencies.
The report, titled 'Future-proofing Security of Supply in a Contested World', warns that recent global events—including the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel conflict with Iran in March 2026—have exposed known vulnerabilities. It also cites the 'hard-nosed nationalism' of the US, EU collaborations, China's manufacturing dominance and Russia's war economy as factors squeezing the UK's access to raw materials.
The warnings come nearly a year after the government's national security strategy and calls by Keir Starmer for a 'whole-of-society' approach to resilience. However, there are concerns that the issue has lost focus amid political distractions. The Commons defence committee reported last November that the 'national conversation' sought by the prime minister had yet to start, with little public engagement and no clear central direction. The NPC report concludes: 'It is a mistake to assume that catastrophic events will not happen.'
