Ministers are reportedly considering cutting the proportion of new cars that must be electric in 2030 from 80% to around 60%, while retaining the commitment to all new cars being zero emission by 2035. The move comes amid reports of disagreement within government about how to achieve the transition, which is hardly reassuring for consumers deciding what car to buy or for businesses deciding where to invest.
Existing flexibilities under the ZEV mandate
Before offering further concessions, ministers need to acknowledge those already in place. This year's 33% electric car target has received plenty of attention, with sales falling short. However, manufacturers don't necessarily need a third of their sales to be electric to comply, because the ZEV mandate already contains substantial flexibilities.
They can buy surplus credits from other manufacturers, bank them for later or borrow against future performance, within limits. They can also convert savings against their combustion-fleet CO₂ baseline into allowances that help meet their electric car obligations.
A petrol or diesel car doesn't become zero emission through an accounting adjustment, but selling lower-emission combustion models, including petrol and diesel hybrids, can help a manufacturer comply while selling fewer fully electric cars.
Market already ahead of requirements
New AutoMotive's analysis, covered on Electrifying.com, suggests the car market collectively is already ahead of its estimated requirement once CO₂ flexibilities are included. Some manufacturers remain behind, but it's a different picture from suggesting the whole system is failing, raising questions about whether their product planning and investment in electrification have been good enough.
If ministers cut the headline targets while retaining or extending concessions that reduce the effective requirement, they risk weakening the policy twice. Government should listen to manufacturers, whose investment and jobs matter enormously, but listening shouldn't mean allowing a few private companies to dictate environmental policy.
Vans need a more pragmatic approach
Electric cars and electric vans are at different stages of adoption. SMMT puts electric light commercial vehicles at 11% of registrations through October, including heavier electric vans, against a headline van target of 24% this year. That comparison also needs the flexibilities caveat, but the adoption gap deserves attention.
For a business, a van has to earn its keep. Can it carry the load, complete the working day and charge where it's parked? Manufacturers selling both cars and vans can already transfer surplus car allowances to help meet van obligations, linking the two markets even though their customers face different challenges.
Purchase grants and depot charging support already exist, so ministers should examine whether they're reaching the businesses that need them, alongside considering a more realistic trajectory for vans. That would be more useful than weakening electric car targets to accommodate difficulties elsewhere. With a growing choice of affordable models, buyers' confidence should be built and continued investment in charging supported, as a reliable network across the UK is essential to making the switch practical for more drivers.
