Keeping the triple lock would force the Conservatives to raise the state pension age to 70, according to Treasury Minister Torsten Bell. He said the costs of an unreformed triple lock would lead the Tories to repeat their 2010s approach of accelerating increases to the state pension age.
Triple lock costs and proposed reforms
Government estimates say the triple lock will cost the country £50 billion by 2050. Andy Burnham announced reforms to the scheme due to come into force next Parliament. The Conservatives criticised the move and said they would keep the triple lock, which increases the state pension by inflation, 2.5%, or earnings growth – whichever is highest.
Under the proposed reforms, the state pension will increase by inflation or 2.5% – whichever is higher – and only rise in line with earnings growth if its value has dropped behind recent wage growth.
State pension age increase to 68 and beyond
The state pension, also under review, is due to increase to 68 between 2044 and 2046. Mr Bell accused the Conservatives of wanting to raise it further.
He said: "If you don’t want to have an adjustment to the triple lock, then you will need to do other things to make the state pension remotely sustainable. We don’t need to guess what they would do because they’ve literally just done it, which is they repeatedly and at very short notice accelerated the increases in the state pension age."
He added: "They did that in 2011 and in 2014. Some people had as little as five years’ notice... All I’m saying is, Conservatives do raise the state pension age aggressively. And even though they know that the triple lock should change, they are opposing it – and the consequence of that is they would end up making people wait into their 70s."
Political implications and future pensioners
While reforming the triple lock has been seen as extremely politically risky, Mr Bell said the public would prefer the Prime Minister's willingness to argue his reforms to what he described as the Tories' failure to be honest.
He said: "I think this is a bigger problem for Kemi Badenoch than she thinks. She thinks that her brand is principled, know what you think, tell it straight. And on this, she has done the opposite – we know that she knows it needs to change... The triple lock kind of is the final nail in the coffin of the idea that there’s anything fiscally responsible about modern Conservatism."
The MP for Swansea said Mr Burnham's 10-year plan will also include a promise of a better deal for future pensioners. He said: "It’s just really important to be able to say to people, ‘the comfortable retirement that your parents had: we’re going to make sure that today’s private sector workers have got those’."
