Nothing sums up the death of accountability like the prospect of Nigel Farage in No 10. You would expect the public face of Brexit to be punished by voters, but history shows that leaders often profit from the chaos they sow.
The Myth of Accountability
Perhaps our most poignant political folk tale is the notion of accountability. Those who hurt and undermine us will be punished, while those who help us will be rewarded. In reality, little in either business or politics could be further from the truth. A more reliable rule is that those who generate insecurity profit from it.
The biggest Brexit donor was stockbroker Peter Hargreaves, who gave £3.2 million to the leave campaign. He justified his enthusiasm by saying: 'We will get out there and we will become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.' If you are wondering 'Fantastic for whom?', the current television ad for the company he co-founded, Hargreaves Lansdown, could supply an answer. It presents itself as a safe haven in times of disruptive change, with Brexit among the examples it provides.
Historical Parallels
In early 1915, newspaper owner Benito Mussolini fomented riots in favour of joining the First World War and threatened revolution if the government refused. Italy joined the war in May, disastrously unprepared. The resultant sense of national humiliation provided an opening for the fascists, led by Mussolini himself.
In spring 1940, chaotic planning by Britain's First Lord of the Admiralty caused disaster in Norway. The failure triggered the resignation of Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who was replaced by the First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill. It might have been the right decision, but it was achieved by peculiar means.
Farage's Unpunished Rise
Though the current sense of national decline in the United Kingdom has many parents, few carry more blame than Nigel Farage. He was to the decision to leave the EU what Mussolini was to the decision to join the First World War. He promised miracles with a policy that instead delivered misery and retreat. Has he been punished by the electorate? Not a bit of it.
Austerity enabled Brexit, as popular fury encouraged people to kick the system. Austerity plus Brexit enabled the rise of Farage's Reform UK. Further decline and insecurity are a boon for those who channel rage towards scapegoats: immigrants, asylum seekers, Muslims, woke 'elites'. If Farage becomes prime minister in 2029, his Brexit disaster will be a major reason why.
The Reality of Voting
As Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels argue in their book Democracy for Realists, we possess almost no capacity for attribution. The theory of 'retrospective voting' is a fairytale. While we might vote based on changes in our wellbeing, we consistently punish incumbents for conditions beyond their control. Achen and Bartels estimate that 2.8 million people voted against Al Gore in 2000 because their states were too dry or too wet, including Florida, on whose count the election turned.
I fear that Farage will succeed in shrugging off the undeclared £5 million he was given by a crypto billionaire just before he decided to stand for election in 2024. Nor will people punish his party for its likely dismal failures in local government. It is not that voters do not care; we have a powerful sense of justice. But busy with our lives, we do not have the mental space to keep receipts.
Distraction and Dysfunction
The more crises we face, the less accountable politics becomes. Boris Johnson sometimes appeared to trigger new crises to distract from old ones, and Donald Trump seems to do the same. The more dysfunctional and turbulent life becomes, the more he can claim to be the nation's saviour. It is like pushing someone into a pond to enact a dramatic rescue.
Our entire political system is premised on the idea of accountability. Brilliant theory, but it bears no relation to reality. Those who believe the fairytale tend to lose elections. The winning formula is not listing achievements but demonstrating hope. If you are in government, you should spend big on public services, showing that life is improving.
Labour's Missteps
The UK government does the exact opposite. With self-defeating fiscal rules that suppress growth and damage perceptions of wellbeing, it reinforces our sense of hopelessness. The current leadership flatters a political base it calls 'hero voters'—people it thinks it can lure from the right. But such voters are mythical. By sacrificing itself to these wraiths, Labour alienates its own base.
It reinforces this alienation with 'hippy punching': demonstrating macho, pro-capital credentials by ripping down environmental protections, banning protests, cutting benefits, and attacking immigrants. There is a basic rule: hate people and they will hate you back.
The animating force of Starmer's team is extreme hostility to the Labour left, brought into government as a national programme. Instead of inspiring, it points to Farage's record and threatens that if we do not vote Labour, we will get what is coming to us. It subscribes to a mythic conception of politics that describes a planet other than our own. When Starmer goes—and after two wasted years, he must—we should hope his replacement has some idea of how this business works.
