The notion that political leaders are held accountable for their actions is a comforting fiction, argues George Monbiot. He points to the rise of Nigel Farage as a prime example: the former Ukip leader, who was instrumental in delivering Brexit, has not been punished by voters but instead stands a realistic chance of becoming prime minister in 2029.
Monbiot draws historical parallels, noting that Benito Mussolini, who agitated for Italy's entry into the First World War, later rode the resulting national humiliation to power. Similarly, Winston Churchill, responsible for the disastrous Norway campaign in 1940, replaced Neville Chamberlain as prime minister. The pattern, he suggests, is that those who create chaos often profit from it.
The Brexit campaign was bankrolled by Peter Hargreaves, who gave £3.2 million and argued that insecurity would make Britain successful. His company, Hargreaves Lansdown, now advertises itself as a safe haven during disruptive change, using Brexit as an example. Monbiot argues that the very insecurity generated by Brexit benefits those who caused it.
He cites academic research showing that voters consistently fail to attribute outcomes correctly. A study by Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels found that 2.8 million people voted against Al Gore in 2000 due to local weather conditions, with Florida's result decisive. This, Monbiot says, undermines the theory of retrospective voting.
Farage, he notes, has shrugged off an undeclared £5 million donation from a crypto billionaire and is unlikely to be punished for Reform UK's failures in local government. The constant churn of crises, Monbiot concludes, makes accountability ever more elusive, with figures like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump using new crises to distract from old ones.
