Net migration to the UK is forecast to be 120,000 this year, but columnist Robert Taylor argues this is only an improvement when compared with the unsustainable levels of recent years.
Writing as a guest columnist, Taylor notes that some headlines have treated the figure as a triumph, describing it as the lowest level in three decades. One newspaper declared that Britain's population boom is ending, while another asked whether the country is heading for net-negative migration.
Taylor says he does not join the celebration, stating that 120,000 is only a triumph when compared with the "completely ludicrous, utterly unsustainable, run-away immigration" of recent years, which he says was responsible for the fall of the last Conservative government. He adds that if Andy Burnham thinks this will wash, he suspects Burnham has "another thing coming."
Recent figures and future forecasts
Taylor recalls that net migration stood at nearly one million in 2023, though he acknowledges there were extenuating circumstances that year. He notes it was still 331,000 in 2024 and 171,000 last year. Looking ahead, he says the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts the figures will rise in 2027 and be back as high as 230,000 by 2032.
On the implications for the UK, Taylor argues that if the 2026 figure of 120,000 were repeated every year, and even accounting for Britain's higher death rate than birth rate, the country would have to build another city the size of Birmingham every decade. He says that by 2050, at least two Birminghams would need to be built.
Pressure on services and space
Taylor questions where these new cities would be located, suggesting areas such as the Cotswolds, the Yorkshire Dales, or Devon. He describes Britain as already one of the most overcrowded countries in the world, noting that England alone has a population density of more than 450 people per kilometre, making it four times as densely populated as France.
He links the pressure to everyday problems, including long waits for GP appointments, traffic congestion, difficulty finding housing, crowded public transport, long A&E waits, and inability to get children into local schools. He concludes that Britain, especially England, has simply run out of space.
Taylor also points to the number of working-age Britons on out-of-work benefits, which he says is nearly three million, many due to mental-health issues. He states this figure has risen massively since Covid, and that 7% of working-age adults are too ill to get a job. He argues that immigrants are brought in to fill the jobs instead, requiring more housing.
Political response
Taylor quotes Conservative Home Affairs spokesperson Chris Philp, who said: "Having highly skilled UK and European workers leaving in droves to flee Labour's high taxes while low skill migrants come in from undeveloped countries is not good. We need limited high skill migration, zero low skilled migration and we want highly skilled UK and European workers to stay, not flee."
Taylor acknowledges that Philp is ignoring the record of his own party in government, but says the point cannot be argued with. He concludes that net migration of 120,000 may be an improvement on previous years, but it is not a cause for celebration.
