China's population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, with births dropping 17% to a record low of 7.92 million, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The birthrate of 5.63 per 1,000 people is the lowest since records began in 1949, deepening concerns over an ageing workforce and long-term economic impact.
The total population declined by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster fall than in 2024. Deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million, while the death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 was the highest since 1968. Demographer Yi Fuxian noted that births in 2025 were roughly equivalent to levels in 1738, when China's population was only about 150 million.
The decline persists despite government efforts to boost birthrates, including a 90bn yuan (£9.65bn) childcare subsidy programme and plans to cover IVF treatment under national health insurance. However, high costs remain a barrier: raising a child to age 18 averages 538,000 yuan, over 6.3 times GDP per capita, compared to 4.11 times in the US and 4.26 times in Japan.
Marriages, a leading indicator for births, plunged by a fifth in 2024 to 6.1 million, the steepest drop on record. However, a policy change in May 2025 allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country led to a 22.5% rise in marriages in the third quarter, potentially boosting births temporarily.
China's population is ageing rapidly, with over-60s accounting for 23% of the total. By 2035, the number of people over 60 is expected to reach 400 million, straining pension budgets. Retirement ages have already been raised, with men now retiring at 63 and women at 58.
The government has also removed condoms from VAT-exempt items, imposing a 13% tax, though free contraceptives remain available. Many internet users predict further declines in birthrates, citing economic pressures and the legacy of the one-child policy, which ended in 2015.
