Welsh Labour, the most successful election-winning machine in the democratic world, is on the brink of a historic defeat in next month's Senedd election, according to a new poll. The party, which has come first in every general election in Wales since 1922 and every devolved election since 1999, is now projected to fall to fourth place, trailing behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
The poll indicates that Plaid Cymru and Nigel Farage's Reform UK are neck and neck, although coalition maths make it unlikely Reform could form a government. The potential loss of power after 27 years and the possibility of pro-independence Plaid entering government as a senior partner for the first time has been described as 'existential' by experts. Laura McAllister, a professor of public policy at Cardiff University, said: 'I’m not sure people have computed yet how existential both those things simultaneously are going to be.'
Welsh Labour's record in office is mixed. While supporters argue the party protected public services from austerity, Brexit and the Covid pandemic, critics point to poor outcomes: about 20% of Welsh NHS patients wait over a year for hospital treatment, compared with 4% in England; Welsh children's reading, maths and science skills fell to the lowest OECD levels of the four UK nations in 2024; and more than one in five people in Wales live in poverty, with deep poverty rising from 33% in the 1990s to 47% in 2023.
The scandal-plagued premiership of Vaughan Gething, who was first minister for just four months in 2024, damaged the party internally and repelled voters. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's unpopularity has also weakened Welsh Labour, despite his government's actions such as saving jobs at Tata Steel and approving a nuclear reactor in Anglesey. Starmer's name is not mentioned in the party's manifesto.
A senior Labour source said the party faces a 'critical debate about what the party stands for' after the election. 'There will be those who try to defend 27 years in power, and attribute blame for a loss to the UK government or other factors. But you have to be humble in losing. You have to understand why you lost the public’s trust and support and what needs to be done to stay relevant.'
