The Scottish parliamentary election is being described as the most unpredictable in years, with polling suggesting the SNP will fall well short of a majority. Final projections from the Diffley Partnership show the party winning 56 seats, nine fewer than the 65 needed for an outright majority.
The campaign trail has exposed voter discontent, as SNP leader John Swinney discovered during a walkabout in Hamilton. He was confronted by Natasha Kelly, a pro-independence SNP voter who said she was "losing faith" over the failure to improve her damp council flat, and Gavin Boyle, a Glasgow bar owner furious at a 438% rise in business rates.
Polling analyst Mark Diffley said the campaign had been "uninspiring" and failed to impress voters. The partnership's final figures also put Reform on 19 seats, Labour on 18, the Greens on 16, the Conservatives on 11, and the Liberal Democrats on nine – a result that would give Labour its worst ever Holyrood performance.
Scottish Labour held a boisterous rally in Glasgow, with leader Anas Sarwar urging supporters to "Reject Reform, beat the SNP". Though the party privately concedes it will not surpass the SNP, it believes strong doorstep data could allow it to challenge for the first minister's post. Labour has spent £200,000 on social media advertising in the final days to target wavering voters.
The SNP has shown signs of nervousness, pledging a vote on independence powers on the first day of a new parliament. Celebrity backers including actors Martin Compston and Alan Cumming have been drafted in, while the Scottish Greens – who are not fielding candidates in every constituency – have been urged to lend support to the nationalists in some seats.
Reform's campaign has been chaotic, and there is uncertainty over several key contests. Scottish Labour's deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, is predicted by some pollsters to lose her Dumbarton seat to the SNP, a forecast she firmly rejects.
