A new poll has put the Greens in first place ahead of Thursday's by-election in Gorton and Denton, with Reform UK second and Labour third. The survey, published ahead of the contest, gives the Greens 22% of the vote, Reform UK 20% and Labour 18%, with 31% of voters undecided.
The Greens' candidate, Hannah Spencer, is a working plumber and plasterer. Reform UK is fielding Matt Goodwin, a political commentator. Labour has claimed that only it can beat Reform in the constituency, a traditionally safe seat for the party.
Writing in the Guardian, columnist George Monbiot said Labour's claim was false and accused the party of failing to take the threat from Reform seriously. He pointed to national opinion polls showing Labour's support falling from 26% to 18% since January, while the Greens have risen from 8% to 17%. He noted that bookmakers had made the Greens the favourites in the contest.
Mr Monbiot said Labour could have used a highly effective attack line against Reform, citing research by the group Persuasion UK. The research found that the most effective message focused on Nigel Farage's links to rich donors and corporate interests, including donations from fossil fuel investors. Mr Monbiot argued that Labour avoided this approach because of its own corporate backers and the right-wing press.
He also criticised Labour's record on issues such as Gaza, benefits, immigration and environmental protections, saying the party had alienated former supporters. The by-election was previously seen as a safe Labour hold, but the new polling suggests a tight race.
