Reform UK could struggle to push its poll ratings much higher as the party becomes increasingly reliant on socially conservative views for political support, according to a major study led by psephologist John Curtice. The research, part of the British Social Attitudes report, found that while Reform supporters are disproportionately unhappy with politicians and public services, recent recruits are driven more by ideology than discontent.
The study, which surveyed over 4,600 people across the UK, revealed that Reform supporters are more likely to be older, male, and less educated, with just 9% of graduates backing the party compared to 40% of those with below A-level qualifications. A striking 67% of Reform supporters believe migrants are bad for the economy, and 75% think they undermine UK culture—more than double the national averages.
Curtice noted that support for Reform might plateau close to its current mid-to-high 20s percentage range. 'Something like 30% looks like not an absolute ceiling, but they are unlikely to rise much above that given the character of the campaign issues they are emphasising,' he said. However, he added that under the current first-past-the-post system, this level could still be enough to win a general election.
The report highlighted that 88% of Reform backers believe equal opportunities for transgender people have 'gone too far', compared to 48% of the general public. Similarly, 52% say the same about lesbian, gay, and bisexual people, and 51% about black and Asian people. Curtice argued that improving public services alone, as advocated by Keir Starmer, may not be enough to counter Reform's rise given the sharp ideological distinctiveness of its supporters.
